After Trump Announces Temporary Truce with Iran, Bitcoin Spikes 4%, But Derivatives Data Shows Lack of Longs Confidence

**March 24 (Cointelegraph) —** After former President Trump temporarily de-escalated tensions with Iran and sought negotiations, Bitcoin briefly jumped 4%. WTI crude later dropped 14% to $85 a barrel, while the S&P 500 gained 3%. Yet Bitcoin derivative data still sends skeptical signals: the market lacks confidence in the $68k support level. **Futures:** Bitcoin’s 2-month futures annualized premium stood at 2% on Monday—below the 4-8% range typical for longer-dated contracts in neutral conditions. This signals weak demand for long leverage, and the lack of conviction has lingered for a month (even as BTC briefly rebounded to nearly $76k). **Options:** Deribit’s April 24-expiring $80k call option was priced at 0.017 BTC (≈$1,207) with 31 days until expiry and 48% implied volatility (IV). The market pegs the probability of BTC hitting $80k in that window at just 20%—a low bar for a 13% monthly gain, rare in crypto’s typically bullish market. **Macro Context:** The Fed’s pause on rate cuts has made it tough for investors to exit fixed-income holdings. Traders will likely stay cautious until oil drops to $75 or lower. Absent new catalysts, BTC traders are unlikely to shift bullish—especially amid ongoing weak conviction in on-chain metrics and derivative signals.