Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin Outperformed Gold and the Nasdaq Since the US-Iran War

On March 12th, per HyperInsight monitoring, a whale address starting with 0x049 opened simultaneous short positions on ETH and BTC within the past hour on Hyperliquid, with a total position size exceeding $60 million. The ETH short position was opened with 20x leverage, totaling 14,564.35 ETH (~$30.1 million) at an average entry price of $2,059.82. It currently has an unrealized loss of ~$120,000 (-8%), with a liquidation price of $2,120. Concurrently, the same address opened an equivalent-sized BTC short position: 426.35 BTC (~$30.06 million) at an average entry price of $70,363. It holds an unrealized loss of $48,000 (-4%), with a liquidation price of $72,956.

**March 12 (Tuesday) – Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chairman Mike Selig announced key steps Tuesday to bring clarity to prediction markets.** In a formal statement, Selig said: *“Today, we’ve issued clear guidance for prediction markets to help trading platforms understand CFTC expectations when listing new contracts. We’re taking responsibility to ensure this asset class operates under transparent rules.”* In a subsequent CNBC interview, he expanded: *“Prediction markets are evolving rapidly, which is why we’re acting now to provide this guidance. Trading platforms self-certify contracts and maintain their own rulebooks—they need a clear sense of our requirements, so we’re publishing these guidelines in plain written form for them to follow.”* Selig added the CFTC will release a pre-rulemaking notice later Tuesday: *“Our goal is to establish clear conduct rules for this new asset class and market. Preventing manipulation, insider trading, and other abuses in th

On March 12, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei announced via social media that he plans to deliver his first statement, which will cover seven sections: the martyrdom of the revolutionary leader, the people’s roles and responsibilities, the armed forces, the executive branch, the resistance front, regional countries, and how to engage with the enemy. (Xinhua International)

U.S. initial jobless claims declined last week, signaling limited corporate layoffs, the Labor Department reported Thursday. For the week ended March 7, claims totaled 213,000—down from 214,000 the prior week and below the 215,000 consensus forecast. Continuing claims (for the week ended Feb. 28) dropped to 1.85 million, from 1.87 million the previous week. The latest data follows the Labor Department’s weaker-than-expected February jobs report last week, which showed a 92,000 job decline—after a 126,000 gain in January. Still, the modest claims figures suggest companies are prioritizing retaining workers over large-scale layoffs.

March 12: Robinhood has listed GRT, per official sources.

March 12 — Eightco Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: ORBS), the WLD Treasury Company, today announced a $125 million funding round led by BitMine (committing $75 million), with ARK Invest putting up at least $25 million and Payward (parent of crypto platform Kraken) contributing $25 million. The capital will fuel ORBS’ expansion of its investment business, focusing on next-gen AI, blockchain infrastructure, and technologies tied to global digital consumer platforms. ORBS also said it has completed $75 million in initial strategic investments, including a $50 million stake in OpenAI and a $25 million investment in MrBeast and Beast Industries. These moves establish ORBS as a hub for cutting-edge AI tech and content creation, while expanding its portfolio to include equity in top global innovators. The firm maintains long positions in Worldcoin (co-founded by Sam Altman) and Ethereum, citing strong confidence in the ERC-20 protocol. Additionally, ORBS has appointed BitMine Chairman Tom