Bitfinex Report: Bitcoin Price Currently Driven by Spot Demand, Laying Groundwork for High Certainty Mean Reversion Rally

Glassnode’s market analysis notes that Bitcoin is currently trading between its median realized price (~$63,000) and short-term holder cost basis (~$68,700). Spot trading volume has hit its lowest level since 2019, leaving the market in an extremely quiet, compressed state. Despite core inflation falling to 2.5% in July and stocks hitting new highs, Bitcoin has barely reacted, even weakening, indicating a clear lack of demand. On the other hand, selling pressure is easing: profitable supply is approaching levels seen in past bear market bottoms, the seller exhaustion metric has hit a cycle low, and the adjusted SOPR has been rejected near the break-even line nine times. Meanwhile, buyers remain absent: ETF net inflows are minimal, and coins continue flowing into exchanges. Yet derivatives leverage has already positioned heavily for longs in advance, open interest is high relative to volume, and order book buy orders are thinning. Glassnode identifies key levels at $68,700 on the upside and ~$58,500 on the downside: a sustained break above the former, paired with a rebound in volume and ETF inflows, would confirm a market improvement; a break below the latter could trigger accelerated declines amid thin buy orders and crowded long positions. Overall, Glassnode remains cautious, describing the current state as a late bear market compression phase, with no clear signs of genuine demand emerging yet.

After overseas centralized exchange (CEX) apps including Bybit and OKX were removed from South Korea’s local Google Play, the country is further tightening procedures for transferring crypto assets to overseas platforms. According to the latest amendment to the enforcement decree of South Korea’s Specific Financial Information Act, domestic exchanges will in the future approve or reject transfers based on the risk level of the overseas platform involved. When sending funds to certain overseas exchanges or personal wallets, users may be required to verify account ownership, disclose the transaction purpose and source of funds; transfers may be delayed or denied if the provided information is insufficient. Transactions exceeding 10 million won per transfer will also be included in exchanges’ self-built suspicious transaction monitoring systems, with the new rules set to take effect six months after their announcement.

Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger told the latest episode of the TechSurge podcast: "We are very excited about agentic AI, and there is massive demand for CPUs. I receive calls from many CEOs every day asking for more CPUs, so we need to significantly ramp up CPU production capacity to meet their needs. Next, we need new CPU architectures to address emerging requirements. Furthermore, I believe there are many opportunities for stacked collaboration between CPUs and memory, and we should also explore new memory architectures. To some extent, innovation in the memory space has been insufficient, so there is indeed significant room for growth here. I used to not invest in memory because I viewed it as somewhat of a commodity business, but things are different now, with many new developments emerging. So we are closely monitoring this—one of my personal passion projects is researching new memory architectures. As you may have seen in the news, I brought on my good friend Shock Lee (Li Shuoxi), former head of SK Hynix, so you can probably guess what I’m working on. Though we’re not ready to make an official announcement yet, I’m always thinking about long-term directions. I consider short-, medium-, and long-term demand when planning. Typically, when I join a startup, I stay for 10 years; that was the case at Cadence, and at Intel, it was 15 years. I’ve also told the board that I’m not someone who only focuses on the short term. I’m looking at the future 10 or 15 years from now—how we can build a larger platform that truly benefits the entire industry. Being able to contribute even a little to the industry is quite meaningful."

According to The Information, Sequoia Capital and asset management giant Wellington are in advanced negotiations to invest in prediction market platform Kalshi, with the deal valuing the company at approximately $40 billion. Wellington will become a new investor in Kalshi; the firm has previously made multiple investments in companies approaching the IPO stage. The relevant transaction has not yet been finalized.

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan told Bloomberg in an interview that Bitcoin may have reached the bottom of its bear market, as recent negative developments—including the Coldcard wallet hack, Strategy Inc.’s Bitcoin sales, and stalled progress on the CLARITY Act—have failed to trigger a meaningful price drop. Hougan noted that the market’s ability to brush off bad news is a sign the bear market is ending, and he anticipates the approval of crypto ETFs by wealth management platforms and institutional inflows will serve as a catalyst for the next stage of upward momentum.

Per its official announcement, OKX will list DOS (DappOS) for spot trading. DOS/USDT spot trading will officially launch at 18:00 (UTC+8) on August 13, 2026; deposits are now open, and users can place advance orders one hour prior to the trading going live. It is reported that DappOS is an AI operating system for Web3, designed to integrate research and analysis, content creation, strategy planning and on-chain execution into a unified platform.