Analysis: Bitcoin's key support level is $64,500, and currently there is not enough bearish momentum to drive Bitcoin below $60,000 quickly

On March 1, cryptocurrency analyst Murphy noted that using the 10-year realized price (<10y_RP) as Bitcoin’s "historical average cost" is more effective for gauging market sentiment. When BTC’s price nears the <10y_RP (roughly $64,500), it often hits a psychological threshold for the market. On February 23–24 and 27–28, BTC fell below this level multiple times but bounced back—signaling strong bullish support at this sensitive price point, unlike the sharp drops seen when approaching the short-term holder realized price (STH-RP). The market’s biggest uncertainty still stems from the U.S.-Iran geopolitical conflict. As key events unfold, focus will shift to the conflict’s scope, duration, and impact on oil prices. That said, over the weekend—with limited institutional and market maker participation—bearish pressure hasn’t been enough to push BTC below $60,000 quickly. These assessments still need further validation once U.S. stock markets open next week. If the trend confirms, the earlier analysis on "how far this rebound can extend" and key resistance levels will remain valid.