Analyst: Bitcoin's Daily Net Buying Volume Still Greater Than Mining Volume, But Tech Stock Sell-Off May Put Continued Pressure on Bitcoin

February 17 — MEXC Research Chief Analyst Shawn Young says cryptocurrency traders could push Bitcoin back to $100,000. Young notes: While buyers aren’t scooping up digital assets in the same big volumes as months ago, their daily Bitcoin purchases still outpace daily mining output. That’s created a net positive supply dynamic that could spark a short-term rebound. Some analysts warn the situation could worsen. Bloomberg Intelligence’s Mike McGlone even predicts Bitcoin could plunge 85% to $10,000. His reasoning: Stock market gains have damped market volatility, gold and silver have outperformed Bitcoin as safe-haven assets, and the industry has lost confidence in former President Trump’s crypto push. Crypto investment firm Keyrock researcher Ben Harvey and others argue Bitcoin’s next move hinges on macro factors — like Fed rate cuts and institutional buying of Bitcoin ETFs — not internal crypto drivers. Bloomberg data shows AI bubble fears have sent credit default swap (CDS) trading soaring (these complex derivatives were nearly ignored a year ago). CDS act as debt default insurance; Alphabet has nearly $9 billion in debt and Meta nearly $7 billion tied to these contracts. That means hedge funds are increasingly using these derivatives to hedge downside risk — in other words, investors are preparing for a major market sell-off that could drag Bitcoin lower. So-called “AI panic trades” in tech stocks have been under pressure since January. The flagship Belief Technology ETF (tracking leaders like Microsoft, Oracle, Palantir) is down just over 23% year-to-date. Analysts predict big tech borrowing will jump from $165 billion in 2025 to $400 billion this year, to fund AI data centers that could cost tens of trillions of dollars. If AI projects fail to deliver returns, investor risk will rise. Young adds Bitcoin’s trading trends mirror tech stocks, so it’s “the first to take the hit from liquidity shifts or capital outflows.”