Polymarket Prediction: Probability of "Bitcoin Falling to $50,000 This Year" Rises to 66%

On February 13, OnchainLens monitoring data shows that whale address 0x982 has deposited $4.8 million in USDC into HyperLiquid and opened a 20x-leveraged short position on ETH. The address is currently still actively adding to this position. Six days ago, the same address deposited $2.4 million in USDC, opening a 10x-leveraged short position on HYPE and a 20x-leveraged long position on BTC.

February 13 — The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release January’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data this Friday evening at 9:30 PM Beijing time. Market forecasts call for headline CPI to rise 2.5% year-over-year in January, down from the prior reading of 2.7%. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) is also expected to fall to 2.5% year-over-year, while its month-over-month growth could edge up to 0.3%. If the data meets expectations, headline inflation will drop to its lowest level since May 2023 — continuing the downward trend from last September’s peak. Analysts note slower housing cost growth may weigh on service prices, but tariff pass-through, initial price hikes by businesses early this year, and travel-related subcategory costs could still support inflation. RBC projects core CPI will rise 0.4% month-over-month — above market consensus. While inflation may cool further, markets broadly believe the data is unlikely to shift the Federal Reserve’s current “wait-an

February 13 (Friday) — Bloomberg — German stock exchange operator Boerse Stuttgart Group intends to merge its crypto business with Frankfurt-based digital asset trader Tradias. A Friday statement noted the newly formed unit will have roughly 300 employees and be jointly run by management teams from both firms. Financial terms of the transaction were not disclosed.

On February 13, CoinGecko data shows Upbit’s trading volume has dropped 2% over the past 24 hours, currently at $18.33 billion. The XRP/KRW trading pair leads the Korean won market with 10.27% of total volume. The other top five trading pairs are BTC, BERA, ME, and ETH.

**Bitcoin Trades in Tight Range on Feb 13, Bearish Sentiment Weakens (Coinglass Data)** As of February 13, Bitcoin has maintained a range-bound trend, per data from Coinglass. Funding rates across major centralized (CEX) and decentralized (DEX) platforms show **weakening bearish sentiment**—specific rates are detailed in the attached image. ### BlockBeats Note: Understanding Funding Rates Funding rates are mechanisms set by crypto exchanges to align perpetual contract prices with the underlying asset’s spot price. They facilitate fund transfers between long and short traders (exchanges do not collect this fee), adjusting contract holders’ costs or profits to keep derivative prices close to the underlying asset. - A 0.01% rate serves as the baseline. - Rates **above 0.01%** signal broadly bullish market sentiment. - Rates **below 0.005%** indicate generally bearish mood.

As of February 13th, data from Alternative Data shows the cryptocurrency Fear & Greed Index stands at 9 today—up from 5 yesterday—signaling the market remains in "extreme fear" territory. Note: The index ranges from 0 to 100, incorporating these metrics (with their respective weights): Volatility (25%), Market Volume (25%), Social Media Hype (15%), Market Surveys (15%), Bitcoin Dominance (10%), and Google Trends Analysis (10%).