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Analysis: Bitcoin Sharpe Ratio Falls to Lowest Level Since March 2023, Market Reversal Imminent

2026.02.09 13:42:37

On February 9, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost noted that Bitcoin’s Sharpe Ratio — a metric measuring risk-adjusted return — has turned negative, a sign aligning with late-stage bear market characteristics. This does not mean the bear market is over, but rather that the risk-return profile is approaching extreme levels. Currently, Bitcoin’s Sharpe Ratio stands at -10, its lowest reading since March 2023. Historical data shows Bitcoin’s Sharpe Ratio hit troughs in late 2022 to early 2023 and late 2018 to early 2019 — both coinciding with prior bear market bottoms. The ratio last fell to zero in November 2025, when Bitcoin’s price touched a local low of $82,000. The analyst added that a negative Sharpe Ratio typically signals an imminent market reversal.
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