On-Chain Recurrence of the "Bottom Signal"? Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Convergence Aiming Toward $60,000

On February 4, a Coindesk report spotlighted an on-chain metric—with a track record of multiple validation cycles—that’s once again grabbing market attention. The data shows: when Bitcoin’s profitable supply and loss-making supply converge significantly, it typically signals a bear market bottom. Glassnode figures reveal roughly 11.1 million BTC are currently in profitable positions, while 8.9 million sit in unrealized loss territory. Historically, when these two metrics near equilibrium, Bitcoin has repeatedly hit its cyclical bottom. Calculated using current cost basis, further convergence of profitable and loss-making supply could push Bitcoin’s spot price near the $60k range. This signal emerged in 2015, 2019, 2020, and 2022—each time aligning closely with major market lows. Analysts note that as Bitcoin’s price oscillates around the overall market cost line, supply shifts between profitable and loss-making positions, reflecting broader investor pressure and sentiment cleansing. If history holds, this metric could be a key gauge for judging whether this bear market cycle is nearing its end.