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839 days later, the Bitcoin HODL Wave indicator drops below the "Capitulation Zone" for the first time

2026.02.01 11:21:38

On February 1st, crypto KOL Sea Bitcoin noted that the Bitcoin ahr999 indicator has fallen below 0.45 — its "bottoming line" — for the first time in 839 days, tracing back to October 16, 2023. BlockBeats Note: The ahr999 indicator is calculated as: (Current Bitcoin Price / 200-day DCA Cost) × (Current Bitcoin Price / Index Growth Valuation) - **200-day DCA Cost**: The average cost of equal daily Bitcoin purchases over the past 200 days (reflecting short-term dollar-cost averaging returns). - **Index Growth Valuation**: A logarithmic growth curve fitted to Bitcoin’s historical prices and block height (or time), representing its long-term "fair value" or expected valuation.
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