Wintermute: Bitcoin Wavers Between $85,000 and $94,000 Range, Macro and US Stock Earnings to Determine Next Move

Marvell and Lumentum have officially announced a definitive all-stock acquisition agreement, with the deal carrying an implied enterprise value of approximately $115 billion. Under the terms, each Lumentum share will be exchanged for 4.5 shares of Marvell stock, and the transaction is expected to close in the first half of 2028. Per TradingBeats monitoring, the LITE contract on Hyperliquid is priced at $696.37, down around 19.10% over the past 24 hours with a trading volume of about $56.38 million. MRVL trades at $174.64, down roughly 13.41% in the same period, with a trading volume of approximately $30.76 million. While prices have fallen sharply, LITE contract open interest (OI) has risen significantly. Compared to yesterday, LITE’s nominal OI jumped from around $8.48 million to $16.12 million, a 90.1% increase; after adjusting for price declines, the number of outstanding contracts rose by about 136.1%. MRVL’s nominal OI, meanwhile, dropped by roughly 11.8%, while its corresponding position count only increased by around 1%. One long account (0x8afa) added approximately $2.96 million worth of LITE between last night and this morning, with an average entry price of $809.18, and currently holds an unrealized loss of about $494,000. Based on the agreed 4.5-share exchange ratio, and using Marvell’s current price of $174.64, the reference exchange value per LITE is around $785.88, which is roughly 12.85% higher than LITE’s current price of $696.37; conversely, LITE trades at a discount of approximately 11.39% relative to this reference value.

Binance has released Security Incident Recovery Update #6, announcing that it will gradually reopen withdrawals for additional assets starting from 12:00 (Beijing Time) on November 3, covering networks including BSC, ETH, SOL, XRP, TRON, Arbitrum, Optimism, and Base. Supported assets include BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL, DOGE, ADA, LINK, SHIB, USD1, and FDUSD. Binance stated that not all assets will have withdrawals enabled immediately, with subsequent restorations to be rolled out based on security checks and preparation status. Due to high traffic volumes, initial withdrawal periods may experience delays or extended processing times. Binance stressed that the platform will bear all economic losses caused by this security incident and will not pass any losses on to its users.

According to monitoring by AI Yi, Arthur Hayes’ liquidation of a portion of his altcoin holdings on October 24 temporarily helped him avoid the current market slump. Weighed down by declines in U.S. stocks, the crypto market has faced simultaneous pressure. Among the related tokens: ENA fell from $0.196 to $0.169, a 13.77% drop; ETHFI declined from $0.6499 to $0.5727, an 11.87% fall; ETH dropped from $2,375 to $2,257, a 4.96% loss; UNI remained nearly flat, edging down just 0.28%. ENA recorded the largest decline, while UNI showed the strongest resilience against the downturn.

According to TradingBeats monitoring, over the past 24 hours, at least 11 accounts across the global market have cumulatively recorded liquidation trades exceeding $1 million, totaling approximately $30.4593 million. These liquidations resulted in total losses of around $2.1356 million. Of the accounts, long position liquidations reached $25.8186 million, accounting for 84.76% of the total, while short position liquidations stood at $4.6407 million, involving contracts for cryptocurrencies, U.S. stocks, and crude oil. The largest single account is 0x4b62, whose BTC and ETH positions were cumulatively liquidated for roughly $11.493 million. The account first saw partial short position liquidations yesterday, then flipped to long BTC, only to face two additional long position liquidations in the early hours of today; it has now flipped back to short, holding approximately $10.01 million in BTC short positions. NEAR long account 0x2814 had its entire $3.0959 million position liquidated, repurchased, and then fully liquidated again. The two rounds of liquidation trades totaled $3.773 million, with losses of about $220,300. XPL long account 0x4692 was fully liquidated in the past half hour, with a position of around $2.7702 million and losses of roughly $768,700. This position was opened on October 16, held for approximately 18 days, at an average entry price of $0.0801. Among the remaining accounts, three HYPE long positions had cumulative liquidations of about $6.1158 million, two SOL long positions totaled $2.4734 million, and one additional BTC long position was around $1.0668 million. For HIP-3, the WTI crude oil long position of 0x40f2 underwent three consecutive partial liquidations, totaling $1.4944 million; the LITE and SOXL long positions of 0xbd69 were liquidated for $566,000 and $706,800 respectively, combining to $1.2727 million.

According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi (@ai_9684xtpa), the hacker suspected of stealing roughly $106 million from a European Union entity purchased 27,553 ETH in a single day yesterday, valued at around $62.83 million. The entire position was built on-chain at an average price of approximately $2,280.34, and the hacker has seemingly paused buying activities for now. Late yesterday, on-chain detective ZachXBT posted on his personal channel that a European Union entity reportedly lost over $106 million across multiple centralized exchange accounts. The hacker has been converting large volumes of USDC into ETH.

The total circulating supply of on-chain tokenized stocks has hit a new all-time high, reaching $3.8 billion, marking 10 consecutive weeks of record-setting, with a roughly 590% increase year-to-date. Financial markets are accelerating toward asset tokenization: as investor demand for 24/7 trading rises, tokenized assets are increasingly meeting this demand.