Analyst: Bitcoin Monthly RSI Approaching Bull-Bear Line, Potential Deeper Correction Risk Below 55

Cointelegraph reported on December 25 that Jeff Mei, Chief Operating Officer of BTSE, outlined two key scenarios for Bitcoin and Ethereum in Q1 2026 tied to Federal Reserve policy: - **If the Fed holds interest rates steady**: Bitcoin could dip to $70,000, while Ethereum may fall to $2,400. - **If Reserve Management Purchases (RMPs) continue**: The liquidity injection would support risk assets, pushing Bitcoin to $92,000–$98,000. Ethereum could rise to $3,600, driven by Layer 2 scaling upgrades and growing DeFi appeal—with over $50 billion in ETF inflows and institutional accumulation further boosting the market. Notably, the Fed ended quantitative tightening (QT) on December 1 and launched RMPs, buying ~$40 billion in short-term Treasuries monthly—an move some analysts call "stealth quantitative easing (QE)."

On December 25, Tom Lee said: "There are positive developments in the financial services sector. Financial firms will be key beneficiaries of both AI and blockchain technology—both can help cut their reliance on human capital." He added: "I therefore believe tech-enabled large banks may see margin expansion ahead and perform more like tech stocks. JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs could emerge as the next U.S. tech giants."

Per Cointelegraph reports on December 25, experts from Argentum AI, Coin Bureau and other institutions noted in interviews that the 2026 quantum computing threat to cryptocurrencies remains theoretical rather than imminent. Clark Alexander, Head of AI at Argentum AI, stated commercial quantum computing applications are expected to be extremely limited in 2026. Nic Puckrin, Coin Bureau co-founder, said 90% of quantum threat claims are for marketing purposes—and it will take at least another decade for a computer capable of breaking existing cryptography to emerge. That said, experts flagged potential risks to the public-key cryptography relied on by blockchains like Bitcoin. Boosty Labs expert Sofiia Kireieva pointed out the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA) used for private/public keys is the weakest link, while the SHA-256 hash function has lower vulnerability. Ahmad Shadid, O Foundation founder, noted address reuse significantly increases hacking risk. Curre

On Dec. 25, CoinDesk analyst James Van Straten published an article noting Bitcoin has spent just 28 trading days in the $70k–$80k range—making it one of the least consolidated, weakest support levels in its history. Since dropping from its October all-time high, Bitcoin has traded mostly in the $80k–$90k range through December. This pullback has pushed prices into a range where the asset has historically spent far less time, especially compared to 2024, when Bitcoin logged far more trading days between $50k and $70k. This uneven distribution means support at $80k (or even $70k–$79,999) isn’t yet as solid as in lower price ranges. On-chain data shows Bitcoin supply in the $70k–$80k range is notably low—aligning with futures market data. Both datasets suggest that if Bitcoin sees another correction, the $70k–$80k range will need more time to consolidate and build stronger support.

On December 25, on-chain analyst Ai Whale (@ai_9684xtpa) noted that a whale has resumed ETH accumulation after a three-day pause. Just one hour ago, the whale withdrew an additional 5,500 ETH (≈$16.09 million) from OKX. Since December 5, the whale has pulled a total of 34,415.46 ETH from exchanges, worth roughly $107 million. Their average entry cost stands at $3,131.11 per ETH, with an unrealized loss of $7.162 million to date.

On December 25th, Li Xiaohua—founder of Liquid Capital (formerly LD Capital)—posted on social media: “USD1 hitting a market cap of over $3 billion is a solid start for the stablecoin. Stablecoins are the industry’s most critical track and the bridge that lets crypto tap into financial services for billions of people. I believe USD1 can become a leading stablecoin down the line, which is why we’ve maintained a heavy position in WLFI. We’ll keep investing in it and providing various forms of support.”