10x Research: The Bitcoin Halving Cycle still exists, but the driving forces have shifted from halving to politics and liquidity

According to Bitget market data, Brent crude oil fell 3.00% intraday, currently trading at $100.43 per barrel. Earlier, Trump announced the suspension of $4 billion in aid to Israel.

Nov 3 Update: #Bitcoin ETFs: 1D NetFlow: -5,942 $BTC(-$458.98M)?? 7D NetFlow: -9,593 $BTC(-$740.99M)?? #Ethereum ETFs: 1D NetFlow: -86,589 $ETH(-$197.12M)?? 7D NetFlow: -195,872 $ETH(-$445.91M)??

According to Al Jazeera, a source close to the mediation team has revealed that mediators have briefed Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on the terms of the memorandum of understanding (MoU), with both countries expressing their approval. Washington and Tehran have made concessions on nuclear issues and frozen assets.

According to Bitget market data, A-share and Hong Kong-listed contract underlying assets rebounded after market close, with the following gains relative to their closing prices: Changxin Technology up 1.74%, STAR 50 Index up 1%, Unitree Technology up 0.53%, CICT up 4%, Minimax up 1.21%, and Zhipu AI up 1.72%.

U.S. President Donald Trump gave an interview to Fox News on local time November 3. When asked about the Iran issue, he stated: "We carried out a very successful strike against them last night. I don't want to cause a large number of casualties, but if that's necessary, so be it. As for how to handle Iran after the midterm elections, we'll have to wait and see."

As U.S. voters cast ballots on Election Day, control of Congress’ House and Senate remains undecided, while investors assess rising risks tied to AI trading, leaving U.S. stock futures largely flat. S&P 500 futures saw little change, while Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.3%, erasing some of their earlier losses. Tech stocks are attempting a cautious rebound, after entering a technical correction zone the prior day. The election adds another layer of uncertainty to an already fragile market environment. Prediction market Polymarket currently puts the probability of Democrats winning control of the House at around 95% and the Senate at roughly 77%, suggesting the party could take both chambers of Congress. As investors adjust positions ahead of the election outcome, the gap between polling and prediction market expectations is drawing renewed attention. Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report, noted: “When it comes to the various forecasts and market reactions to tonight’s election results, investors need to keep one key figure in mind — while past performance doesn’t guarantee future results, the S&P 500 has never traded below its Election Day level 12 months after midterm elections since 1950, over the past 76 years. That’s the most important point for clients to focus on.”