QCP: Bitcoin Holds Steady as Future Leadership Changes at the Federal Reserve Take Center Stage

December 3rd: QCP’s daily market note out today notes the market has entered a wait-and-see mode following Monday’s sharp volatility—calm on the surface, but far from relaxed. Bitcoin is trading quietly around the $90k mid-level after rebounding 5% from an $86k low; meanwhile, equities and forex markets are fluctuating ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting, which is light on data but politically charged. Beneath the calm, markets are clearly gearing up for the next round of catalysts. ### Focus Shifts to Fed Leadership The next wave of market catalysts is increasingly tied to the Fed, especially its new leadership. Betting markets have shifted rapidly, with Kevin Hassett now pegged at ~85% probability to become the next Fed chair—expected formal confirmation from Trump early next year. The transition comes amid a fragile monetary policy phase, raising market questions about how the new team will impact the Fed’s response framework. - Miran to Depart Jan 2026 - Bostic to Leave Feb 2026 - Powell to Step Down May 2026 These departures could tilt the FOMC to a more dovish stance than markets are used to. ### Next Week’s FOMC: Limited Data, Elevated Risks The upcoming FOMC meeting brings new variables. With no fresh CPI or NFP data during the gathering, policymakers have far less visibility than usual. Still, futures markets have priced in a 90% chance of a precautionary 25bp rate cut next week. Market focus is shifting from just inflation data to governance, policy leanings, and institutional direction. ### Crypto Market: Temporary Relief, Unresolved Issues Weekend anxiety has eased temporarily. Strategy raised ~$1.4B via a stock offering, extending its operating runway by ~21 months while lifting its mNAV to ~1.14. Management reiterated BTC will only be sold if mNAV falls below 1.0. Short-term sentiment has stabilized, but structural pressures keep markets on guard. The next key risk event is the Jan 15 MSCI index inclusion review, which could trigger sharp swings in Strategy-related fund flows. ### Current State Crypto assets remain relatively stable but in a “tense stability” mode, waiting for clearer signals. With limited macro catalysts and rising Fed leadership uncertainty, digital assets are effectively in a pause until policymakers deliver the next clear guidance.