QCP: The current state of the US economy is closer to late cycle than to a recessionary period. This week's data will determine Bitcoin's future trajectory.

On November 19th, QCP released its daily market observation. It stated that this week, Bitcoin continued to decline and once dropped below the crucial $90,000 level. The reason was that the market tightened its expectations for interest rate hikes, and the continuous ETF outflows suppressed market sentiment. Thin liquidity further magnified this round of declines, indicating that Bitcoin is becoming more and more sensitive to macroeconomic changes. This pullback took place against the backdrop of the rapid repricing of the expectations of the Federal Reserve - from a nearly certain December rate cut to roughly balanced probabilities. Assets sensitive to interest rates, such as Bitcoin, felt this pressure. Meanwhile, the stock market remained relatively stable due to strong corporate earnings reports, especially from hyperscalers reporting strong profits and record AI-driven capital expenditures. With the reopening of the US government, official data has been gradually released, providing the market with necessary insights into the momentum of economic fundamentals. This week, the market is highly focused on labor market data and the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index (LEI), which now includes the latest job vacancy data. This information will help determine whether labor tightness or inflation will drive the Federal Reserve's 2026 policy response. Beneath the surface, the US economy continues to show K-shaped differentiation: high-income household spending remains resilient, while low-income groups are under increasing pressure. Federal Reserve Chair Powell reiterated a cautious stance, stating that a December rate cut is "not a certainty." Overall, current economic conditions are closer to the late cycle rather than being in a recession. Despite ongoing risks from fiscal constraints and labor market differentials, the resilience of household balance sheets and the robustness of corporate capital expenditures provide a cushion against downward pressures. This week's data will determine whether Bitcoin's pullback is a temporary position adjustment or the beginning of a broader decline in risk appetite.