Cobie: While Bitcoin's halving effect remains uncertain, the difficulty and risk of altcoin trading will continue to increase.

On November 3rd, the Crypto KOL Cobie tweeted that it remains uncertain whether Bitcoin will continue to offer diminishing returns. However, altcoin trading (on average) will become more difficult and risky, leading to an irreversible trend. The reasons are as follows: There is intense and maturing buyer competition, accompanied by a decrease in conviction. It is mainly through perpetual contracts and leverage trading. There is market cap overvaluation and severe dilution. All optimism is initially captured in terms of FDV, regardless of price and valuation. Excessive pre-market price discovery leads to insecurity. In 2017, buyers purchased spot and held them for weeks or months, adding to their positions with conviction during the uptrend and benefiting from early undervaluation. In 2025, buyers purchase through perpetual contracts, do not check the valuation, and sell when profits turn into losses or in forced liquidations. Nevertheless, altcoin remains the best return field for smart people. In this field, skill expression and asset selection are more critical, and patience outweighs the "early" entry in a liquid market.