Glassnode: Bitcoin Market Leverage was effectively flushed out as of 10/11, significantly reducing the risk of cascading liquidations.

MSCI is soliciting feedback on a new non-operating company identification methodology, a proposal that could result in Strategy and Metaplanet being removed from MSCI’s global investable market indices. Based on MSCI’s simulation using May 2026 data, Strategy, Metaplanet, and uranium investment firm Yellow Cake would be excluded from the MSCI All Country World Index Investable Market Index (ACWI IMI), while companies including SharpLink would be placed on a public watchlist. The new methodology adopts a two-step screening process. Companies first undergo an operating asset structure test; if they fail, they are evaluated based on five metrics: operating asset ratio, expense intensity, operating cash flow, fair value changes, and capital dependence. Failing the core test and triggering at least four exclusion criteria simultaneously may deem a company ineligible for index inclusion. For companies already included in indices, MSCI plans to apply relatively lenient thresholds, requiring failure to pass screening for two consecutive annual reporting periods before removal. Strategy’s free-float adjusted market capitalization in the May 2026 simulation stood at $23.9 billion, making it the largest company flagged for potential removal. MSCI noted that the proposal will not immediately alter index constituents, as it is soliciting feedback from market participants through September 30, with consultation results expected to be released by October 16. JPMorgan analysts previously estimated that Strategy’s exclusion from MSCI indices could trigger roughly $2.8 billion in passive fund outflows.

MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor published a post noting that digital assets compete across four distinct markets—they do not form a single market, but a new financial architecture comprehensively challenging the traditional financial system (TradFi). The breakdown: Digital capital (BTC) competes for wealth, with rivals including stocks, real estate, gold, and art. Digital credit (STRC) competes for income, facing bonds and private credit. Digital currency competes for savings, with competitors being money market funds and Treasury bonds. Digital payment currency competes for payments, with rivals including cash and bank deposits. Saylor elaborated on digital assets’ "currency spectrum" concept in his post yesterday, categorizing them as: Bitcoin = digital capital, STRC = digital credit, SR-strcUSX = digital currency, USDT = digital payment currency. On this spectrum, volatility and return potential decline gradually from left to right, while stability and transaction utility rise gradually. Saylor defines Bitcoin as the ultimate store of value—highly volatile, high-energy, a sound bearer asset; USDT as the ultimate medium of exchange, stable and easy to transact; digital credit and digital currency serve as bridges between capital and currency.

Wells Fargo raised Sandisk's target share price from $1,400 to $1,550, and lifted Dell Technologies' target share price from $505 to $545.

Analyst qinbafrank has published a research note comparing two leading U.S. optical interconnect sector stocks, Coherent (COHR) and Lumentum (LITE), noting their positioning differences underpin distinct investment theses. Coherent is the scale and platform leader in the U.S. photonics industry, with strengths including scale, product breadth, manufacturing platforms, long-term technology stacks, and customer coverage. Lumentum, by contrast, is a leader with higher profit density and earnings flexibility within the AI optics value pool, outperforming Coherent in growth rate, gross margin, operating leverage, current-period operational quality, and net liquidity. The size gap between the two leaders is narrowing rapidly: Coherent’s full fiscal 2026 revenue stood at 2.36 times Lumentum’s, a figure that fell to 2.03 times in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, and the midpoint of fiscal 2027 first-quarter guidance further narrows this gap to 1.84 times. Calculated using the midpoint of the upcoming quarter’s guidance, Coherent’s revenue is approximately 1.84 times Lumentum’s, but its implied non-GAAP operating profit is only around 1.04 times. For the quarter where Coherent’s revenue was ~2.03 times Lumentum’s, it generated just ~1.62 times Lumentum’s non-GAAP gross profit, 1.21 times operating profit, and 1.08 times net profit. This comparison clearly demonstrates that Lumentum is significantly superior to Coherent in profit quality and operating leverage, while the gap in revenue and profit scale between the two is shrinking rapidly.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted in a recent post that the 30-day moving average of Bitcoin’s average coin dormancy period has climbed to 19 days, marking the first time since the start of the year that it has crossed above the 365-day moving average. Previously hoarded BTC is becoming active again. However, following the Coldcard hack incident, this uptick may not stem from selling, but rather from large volumes of BTC being transferred to new wallets. As such, the current rise in dormancy should not be automatically interpreted as long-term holders distributing their holdings.

Citigroup has raised the target price for AI and cloud computing services provider Nebius from $278 to $324, and increased Coreweave's target price from $142 to $159.