Bitfinex Report: Bitcoin Could Revisit $117,000 to $120,000 if It Holds $110,000

On October 13th, Bitfinex issued a report indicating that last week, the Bitcoin price declined from above $126,000 to below $103,310, representing an 18.1% pullback and triggering the largest liquidation event in the history of the cryptocurrency market in terms of nominal value. Ethereum dropped from $4,750 to $3,500, and various alternative coins witnessed an immediate drop of over 80% in illiquid conditions. Within three hours on October 10th, approximately $1 trillion was wiped out from the entire cryptocurrency market. The total market capitalization temporarily dropped from a high of $4.26 trillion in October to $3.3 trillion, with over $19 billion in liquidation positions on a single day. This sell-off was triggered by aggressive selling pressure in the spot market. It was exacerbated by the escalating trade tensions on October 10th, resulting in a 2.5x imbalance between sellers and buyers on major exchanges. The futures market intensified the decline. Cumulative volume discrepancies showed that sellers had an overwhelming dominance in the spot and perpetual contract markets. Historically, such liquidation-driven panic selling events are usually followed by mechanical rebounds as volatility contracts and over-leveraging is purged. For Bitcoin, reclaiming and holding above $110,000 will confirm that the market is entering a stabilization phase, opening up recovery targets of $117,000–$120,000. Failure to hold could lead to a retest of the $100,000 range. The latest U.S. economic backdrop shows a widening gap between U.S. policy intentions and actual impacts. The minutes of the Federal Reserve's September meeting revealed deep divisions within the Federal Open Market Committee regarding the speed and scale of future interest rate cuts. The majority of policymakers are inclined towards further easing to address the slowdown in job growth, while a few are concerned about the stagnation in inflation control and warn against moving too quickly. In addition, the rising uncertainty in economic policy is compounded by ongoing U.S. government shutdowns, shifts in tariff policies, and stricter immigration policies. Shutdowns have disrupted the release of key data, forcing the market to rely on private indicators to show economic trends: the U.S. economy is cooling but has not yet contracted.