Arthur Hayes: If Trump and Powell go full yield curve control, #Bitcoin is gonna hit $340,000.

According to a Wall Street Journal report, sources familiar with the matter said JPMorgan Chase terminated its banking relationship with prediction market platform Polymarket last October due to regulatory concerns. However, the bank still maintains partial partnerships with Polymarket and other prediction market firms. A Polymarket spokesperson noted that the company currently has "close and active relations" with JPMorgan through multiple entities. Over the past year, Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan has attended JPMorgan-hosted events three times. Earlier this year, a major investor in Polymarket assisted the firm in reaching out to large banks including Citigroup and Fifth Third. Currently, prediction markets are facing heightened scrutiny from U.S. state and federal regulators. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is investigating Polymarket, while the New York City Council is also probing its marketing practices; simultaneously, multiple states are engaged in ongoing litigation over whether prediction markets should be regulated as gambling operations. JPMorgan has previously come under the Trump administration’s spotlight over so-called "debanking" issues. Trump has ordered regulators to probe whether banks engage in "politicized or illegal debanking" practices, and JPMorgan received a subpoena from the U.S. Department of Justice last month as a result.

Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee said recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is encouraging, but inflation remained elevated in May and June. If the momentum from June persists over the next three to four months, policymakers can be confident prices are steadily returning to the 2% target, he noted. He backed holding interest rates steady in July, pointing out that inflation remains the top concern while the economy and employment have "broadly held stable." Goolsbee warned that a sustained drop in retail sales would spark worries, as consumption is a key pillar of the U.S. economy. Separately, he expressed concern over the recent slowdown in productivity growth, stating that if AI-driven growth is not sustainable, the narrative around AI and monetary policy will need to be re-evaluated. On the question of reducing the number of policy meetings, Goolsbee said he has no strong stance and is willing to wait for the working group’s recommendations. (Jinshi)

Elon Musk stated in a post that due to issues with power availability and regulatory approvals for ground-based data centers, orbital computing — also known as space-based computing platforms — may become the only way to continue scaling up AI by some point in 2029.

According to analysis by Jim Osman, a Forbes columnist, Anthropic’s potential initial public offering (IPO) could serve as a key milestone for testing the investment logic underpinning the AI boom. The company’s annualized revenue run rate has climbed from $14 billion in February to over $47 billion in May, while its latest private valuation has surged from $380 billion in February to $965 billion. Markets are even debating whether its IPO valuation could top $2 trillion, though the company has yet to disclose an offering price or final listing timeline. Osman pointed out that Anthropic’s growth is highly impressive, but this also means much of its future success may already be factored into its valuation. The firm filed a confidential IPO application on June 1, and while preparing for its public listing, it must continue pouring massive capital into maintaining its competitiveness in cutting-edge AI models. In May, Anthropic raised $65 billion in funding, with a portion earmarked for expanding computing power. The company has secured an additional 5GW computing power deal with Amazon, plus another 5GW next-generation TPU computing partnership with Google and Broadcom, and also has access to SpaceX’s GPU capacity. The report added that Anthropic has committed to investing more than $100 billion in Amazon Web Services (AWS) over the next decade. Osman believes investors need to focus not only on whether AI technology continues to advance, but also on how future profits will ultimately be split among model developers, chipmakers, cloud service providers, data centers, and software firms. For Anthropic, the critical factors are how much of its revenue can eventually be converted into cash, how much capital must be reinvested to sustain technological leadership, and whether it can preserve pricing power and long-term returns amid intensifying competition.

Luigi Mangione has formally pleaded guilty in the fatal shooting of UnitedHealth Group CEO Brian Thompson. A federal judge has set Mangione’s sentencing date for December 18. Mangione told the court during the hearing that he entered a guilty plea in his federal criminal case, admitting to shooting Thompson. The plea agreement will prevent the high-profile case from proceeding to a federal trial. Additionally, the guilty plea may enable Mangione to seek dismissal of New York state murder charges and delay the upcoming state trial. Mangione currently faces both federal and state charges. The state trial is scheduled for September 8. If convicted of second-degree murder, Mangione faces a sentence of 25 years to life in prison. (CCTV)

Fed’s Goolsbee says CPI data is encouraging, but more data is needed to reach a judgment. The latest two productivity readings are very disappointing, backing the decision to hold interest rates steady in July. If productivity continues to decline, expectations around AI will need to be re-evaluated.