Analysis: Bitcoin Encounters Short-Term Cost Line Resistance, Increased Inflow of Funds Suggests Intensified Long vs Short Battle

2025.09.04 17:24:34

On September 4th, on-chain data analyst Murphy elaborated on the potential for a post-balanced game on Binance following the accelerated growth of stablecoin balances. This morning, BTC peaked at $112,575 before encountering resistance, demonstrating the suppression of the short-term chip's average cost line at $112,700 and validating the rationality of analyzing the market from the viewpoints of short-term holder sentiment and holding mentality. The failure to break through the resistance level this time does not signify the end of the uptrend; there remains room for game theory. It was observed that since BTC entered a pullback on August 13th, Binance's mainstream stablecoin balance (USDT + USDC) has witnessed rapid and substantial growth. From August 13th to September 3rd, there was a net increase of $4.9 billion, which far exceeded the stablecoin balance growth during the same time period after BTC entered a pullback in August 2024 ($3.4 billion) and March 2025 ($2.8 billion). Calculated on a daily basis, the most significant inflows occurred on the following days: August 14, 2025: Net increase of $1.83 billion; August 22, 2025: Net increase of $1.72 billion; August 26, 2025: Net increase of $760 million; August 28, 2025: Net increase of $680 million; After deducting the incremental funds brought in by Binance's financial activities, there is still $3.6 billion. Currently, the overall sentiment of the spot and derivative markets leans towards bearishness. However, even in a weak market, there are still funds waiting to enter or gradually build positions. The flow of funds during the relative bottom range in August 2024 and March 2025 is very similar. Although it does not mean that the market reversal is about to commence, it at least indicates the possibility of a long-short game. This sharing is for learning and communication purposes only and should not be regarded as investment advice.

Add to Favorites Download image Share x Copy link

Relevant content

Yi He: There is a time lag between Binance completing its proof of reserves and users being able to verify it, with the duration typically dependent on the scale of its assets.

Binance co-CEO He Yi stated in a post that the exchange’s latest zero-knowledge proof for its Proof of Reserve (PoR) is now ready, enabling users to independently verify whether their platform balances are backed by at least a 1:1 reserve. He Yi cautioned that a time gap exists between the completion of the reserve proof and users’ ability to verify it themselves, adding that the required time typically depends on asset size and is not controlled by Binance.

9 minutes ago

Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs See Massive Outflows: $1.47B BTC, $391.22M ETH in 7 Days

Nov 6 Update: #Bitcoin ETFs: 1D NetFlow: -4,832 $BTC(-$366.66M)?? 7D NetFlow: -19,343 $BTC(-$1.47B)?? #Ethereum ETFs: 1D NetFlow: -25,590 $ETH(-$57.31M)?? 7D NetFlow: -174,687 $ETH(-$391.22M)??

9 minutes ago

Whale Breaks Year-Long Silence, Buys 3,009 $BTC Worth $228M

After more than a year of inactivity, this whale keeps buying $BTC, purchasing a total of 3,009 $BTC ($228M) today!

9 minutes ago

US October non-farm payrolls significantly exceeded expectations, creating room for the Federal Reserve to combat inflation.

U.S. October non-farm payroll growth exceeded expectations, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.1%, showing the labor market remains resilient and giving the Federal Reserve (Fed) more room to shift policy focus to inflationary pressures stemming from the Middle East conflict. Data released Friday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) shows non-farm payrolls rose by 165,000 in October, while the September figure was revised up to a 60,000 gain from the initial 29,000, against market expectations of just a 65,000 increase. Economists estimate the U.S. economy needs to create at least 40,000 jobs monthly to keep pace with growth in the working-age population. Due to a shrinking labor force, this so-called "jobs balance level" has dropped from around 150,000 in 2024 to its current level. With layoff rates at historic lows and a sharp recent rise in job openings, this has further fueled expectations that the labor market may be tightening. However, economists and Fed officials have consistently held that the labor market does not pose an inflation risk. Some economists point out that against the backdrop of tightened immigration policies and population retirements, the shrinking labor supply is the main reason for the U.S.'s relatively low unemployment rate.

9 minutes ago

A crypto whale, dormant for over a year, bought 3009 BTC worth approximately $228 million.

According to Lookonchain's monitoring, a crypto whale dormant for over a year has been continuously buying BTC, accumulating a total of 3,009 BTC today, valued at approximately $228 million.

9 minutes ago

Ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) release, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in December stands at 72.8%.

Ahead of the release of U.S. October non-farm payrolls data, CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows a 27.2% probability that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady in December, while the chance of a 25 basis point hike stands at 72.8%. For next January, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 21.6%, a cumulative 25 basis point hike is 63.4%, and a cumulative 50 basis point hike is 15.1%.

9 minutes ago

Hot feeds

A trader profits $448K by monitoring #Binance's new listings!

2024.12.13 17:37:29

Last week, funds have flowed into #Bitcoin, #Ethereum, and #Hyperliquid.

2024.12.16 14:48:36

A $PEPE whale that had been dormant for 600 days transferred all 2.1T $PEPE($52M) to a new address.

2024.12.14 10:35:27

When Elon Musk tweeted about Moltbook, the meme coin MOLT experienced a short-term 30% price surge, hitting a new all-time high of $114 million.

2026.01.31 18:37:29

A smart #AI coin trader made $17.6M on $GOAT, $ai16z, $Fartcoin,$arc.

2025.01.05 16:05:18

NFT project Ptah has launched, with its trading volume exceeding $900,000 in just half a day; its minting mechanism mandates the use of a Binance Agent ID.

2026.10.23 10:16:30

Hot Articles