glassnode: Bitcoin Inflow Shows Exhaustion, Crypto Four-Year Cycle May Still Hold

On August 21st, the latest market analysis report from glassnode indicated that there are signs of the exhaustion of Bitcoin's capital inflow. Even though the price reached a new high of $124,400, the demand is weakening. While this demand slowdown was occurring, speculative positions surged. The open interest in major altcoin futures contracts once reached a record high of $60 billion and then pulled back by $2.5 billion. Ethereum, which has long been considered a barometer of the "altcoin season," has once again become the barometer of this round of volatility. Its hodler dominance has risen to the fourth-highest level in history, while the perpetual contract trading dominance has surged to a new high of 67%, marking the strongest structural shift to date. From a cyclical perspective, Bitcoin's price action also echoes previous patterns. In both the 2015-2018 and 2018-2022 cycles, measured from the cycle low, Bitcoin's peak price was only delayed by 2-3 months compared to our current levels. In addition, long-term holders have already achieved profits comparable to the previous bull market, reinforcing the impression that the market is in the late stages of the cycle. Overall, these signals highlight signs of increasing leverage, profit-taking, and intensified speculation, which are characteristic of a historically mature market phase. However, each cycle has its own characteristics, and it is still uncertain whether Bitcoin and the broader market follow a fixed timeline blueprint.