Matrixport: Ethereum's Next Target Price Could Be $4362, Boosted by Recent Institutional Buying Pressure and Regulatory Tailwinds

The French National Assembly’s Finance Committee passed multiple cryptocurrency tax amendments last week, proposing to include crypto assets in the scope of exit tax starting in 2027, and impose a maximum €10,000 fine on unreported large-value self-custody wallets. Under current rules, taxpayers who have resided in France for at least six years in the past decade and hold stocks and other securities worth over €800,000 when leaving the country must pay exit tax on unrealized gains. The new amendments aim to add crypto assets such as Bitcoin to this threshold, covering assets held on overseas platforms and in personal self-custody wallets. Tax rates for the crypto-related measures have not yet been specified. Some taxpayers relocating to the EU or specific countries can defer tax payments; if they retain their assets for the required 2 to 5-year period, the tax will be canceled. Additionally, lawmakers propose that taxpayers with total self-custody wallet assets of €100,000 or more at year-end must file voluntary reports, with a maximum €10,000 fine for non-compliance. Currently, France only requires reporting of foreign crypto accounts. Other measures backed by the committee include taxing crypto asset conversions to stablecoins starting in 2027, allowing crypto losses to offset gains over the next 10 years, and raising the fine for failing to submit documents as required by tax authorities from €10,000 to €50,000 per instance. All these measures are not yet officially effective. Since the Finance Committee rejected the revenue section of the 2027 budget bill, the amendments must be reintroduced and voted on by the full National Assembly. French lawmakers are expected to vote on the budget’s revenue part again on October 20, and on the full budget bill on November 17.

Morgan Stanley’s Head of Digital Asset Strategy Amy Oldenburg stated that the tokenized real-world asset (RWA) market will reach a size of $3 trillion to $10 trillion by 2030, a prediction she called “unquestionable.” She pointed out that industry growth momentum is mutually reinforcing, with institutional investors’ attention and participation in the sector continuing to heat up, and clear FOMO (fear of missing out) sentiment has emerged in the institutional market. Morgan Stanley had previously projected it would begin supporting tokenized stock trading on its Alternative Trading System (ATS) in the first quarter of 2027, a delay from its earlier announced plan for the second half of 2026.

A stronger U.S. dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields have kicked off the week with caution in markets. Bitcoin trades above $83,000, while gold hovers near $4,180 per ounce, both down roughly 0.5%. Tech stock futures are slightly lower, WTI crude oil rises above $92 per barrel, and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) holds above 102.4. U.S. inflation data, set to release this Wednesday, will be the market’s key focus. Markets expect U.S. core CPI to rise 2.5% year-over-year and headline CPI to rise 3.7% year-over-year. If the figures meet expectations, it would mark a reacceleration from last month, potentially further shaping market views on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Separately, The Information reports that IREN, which has shifted from Bitcoin mining to AI infrastructure operations, has struck a multi-year cloud services deal with AI firm Anthropic. Following the announcement, IREN’s U.S. pre-market shares rose roughly 4%.

Bitcoin’s weekly close held the key support level of $82,500, temporarily avoiding a fall back into its long-term trading range of $60,000 to $80,000. BTC settled at around $83,700 on Sunday, down roughly 3.2% for the week. Traders are closely monitoring this week’s U.S. inflation data to assess future market trends. September’s CPI and PPI figures will be released on Wednesday and Thursday respectively. The market expects the year-over-year CPI rise to climb from 3.4% to 3.7%, while the month-over-month PPI increase is projected to go from 0.2% to 0.3%. Lower-than-expected inflation could ease concerns over further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, providing support for risk assets including Bitcoin, stocks and gold; higher-than-expected inflation, meanwhile, may intensify market pressure. On the rate front, CME FedWatch data shows the market assigns an 18.8% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Fed on October 28, and a 70.6% chance of a 25-basis-point hike in December. Separately, U.S. 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields stand at 5.24% and 5.60% respectively. Additionally, WTI crude oil rebounded to around $91.50 per barrel on Monday, up roughly 2% from its intraday low. Traders note that if Bitcoin can sustain its hold on the $82,500 support level, it may continue its rally; a break below this level, however, could expose it to renewed downward pressure.

Deutsche Bank raises Microsoft (MSFT.O) price target from $550 to $600.

The Financial Stability Board (FSB) warned in its latest report that global stablecoins have not yet withstood severe market stress or bankruptcy scenarios, as national regulatory frameworks advance at uneven paces and cross-border collaboration remains in its early stages. The FSB called for strengthened cross-border information sharing, risk monitoring, and advance contingency plans for when stablecoin issuers face distress or collapse. The FSB specifically noted that multi-issuer structures could amplify cross-border risks: affiliated companies issue the same stablecoin across different jurisdictions and hold separate reserve assets, but users may redeem from any issuer in the group. If redemption demand concentrates on one issuer while reserve assets are held in other regions, fund transfers during a crisis could be blocked, and creditor claims plus applicable bankruptcy laws could be hard to determine if an issuer goes bankrupt. Additionally, stablecoins’ 24/7 trading does not align with the trading hours of their underlying reserve assets, which may lead to redemption pressure failing to be met via timely asset sales and trigger depegging. Forced sales of reserve assets and concentrated bank deposit withdrawals could also transmit shocks to traditional financial markets. The FSB also pointed out that the anonymity of crypto transactions may make it harder to identify holders’ locations and their applicable regulatory jurisdictions. Data shows that the total market capitalization of stablecoins has risen from roughly $206 billion at the start of 2025 to around $306 billion, with the majority being dollar-pegged stablecoins. The FSB’s recommendations are not legally binding, but its members typically commit to implementing the relevant standards domestically. The report is released ahead of the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors’ meeting scheduled for October 15.