QCP: Market Expecting Ethereum and Bitcoin to Face Pullback Pressure Around $4,000 and $120,000

On July 28th, QCP issued its daily market analysis report indicating that Ethereum is gradually getting close to the $4000 price level, which was last observed in December of the previous year. With the continuous inflow of funds into the Ethereum spot ETF surpassing that of the Bitcoin ETF for seven consecutive days, market attention and speculation on ETH are intensifying. Considering that the market value of ETH is currently only one-fifth of that of BTC, the threshold for attracting institutional and corporate funds is relatively lower, making the price action more sensitive. Although Ethereum has been dominating most of the headlines in recent weeks, Bitcoin has shown quiet resilience. Although the inflow of funds into the Bitcoin spot ETF has slowed down, the price trend remains stable. Bitcoin's dominance rate still remains around 60%, with almost no fluctuation in the past week, reflecting the market's long-term confidence in Bitcoin as a store of value asset rather than a widespread rotation into the altcoin market. This also indicates that there is still room for ETH and other mainstream coins to further compete for market share. For comparison, in November 2021 when ETH hit its all-time high, Bitcoin's dominance rate dropped to below 45%, while ETH approached 20%. However, in the short term, the market's long positions are relatively crowded. The open interest of BTC and ETH perpetual contracts has reached nearly a one-year high, at $45 billion and $28 billion respectively; the funding rates of major exchanges are also generally above 15%. Although it has not reached the level of "irrational exuberance" or extreme liquidation risk, a slight negative impact could trigger a chain reaction similar to what was seen last Friday. It is worth noting that some whales have started to take profits on their long positions. For example, a larger ETH 26SEP25 3.6k/4k/4.2k bullish call spread combination has been closed out; at the same time, a large number of BTC 8AUG25 $110,000 bearish put options have been bought as a hedge against short-term downward risk. Based on the options flow and the risk reversal flattening in the front-end tenor, the market expects ETH and BTC to face some profit-taking pressure around $4000 and $120,000 respectively. However, in the current environment of strong momentum, compelling narratives, and macro tailwinds, QCP believes that long-term holders and institutional investors will continue to "buy the dip," as seen last Friday.