Analyst: Record-Breaking Ethereum On-Chain Data May Signal Upcoming ETH Price Rally

Liquid Capital founder Li Lihua stated in a post that despite Bitcoin’s rebound during its recent decline, BTC has broken below the mid-band (the 20-period moving average) on the 4-hour timeframe, amid a weaker U.S. stock market and rising oil prices. Currently, except for the weekly timeframe, Bitcoin shows weakness across all lower timeframes: 15-minute, 1-hour, 4-hour, and daily, suggesting the correction may not be over yet. Li Lihua noted that during Bitcoin’s earlier correction from around $86,000, multiple consolidations and attempts to break through the strong resistance at $87,000 had him concerned; the brief break below the key level of $84,000 during the correction also easily triggered market sentiment swings. Traders need to remain patient and avoid trying to time the market constantly. The cost of making bad trades is higher than missing out on opportunities, so investors should stick to their trading principles and not be distracted by short-term fluctuations.

According to reports from China Central Television (CCTV), a European official recently stated that the U.S. is threatening to halt its weapons supply mechanism to Ukraine to pressure Kyiv into stopping deep strikes on Russian energy infrastructure. Over the just-concluded weekend, some European officials received calls from the U.S., which lobbied relevant European countries and pressured Ukraine to end its attacks on Russian refineries. The U.S. conveyed messages including threats to cut off intelligence sharing and terminate the "Ukraine Priority Needs List" mechanism. This mechanism is funded by some NATO European member states, which purchase weapons to aid Ukraine from the U.S., while the U.S. does not contribute to the mechanism. However, in response to the above reports, the White House declined to comment. (Jinshi)

Crypto analyst Darkfost wrote in a post that Bitcoin’s long-term holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has reclaimed its 1.10 annual moving average and held steady at that level, signaling long-term holders have posted an average profit of roughly 10% over the past year. Currently, BTC’s long-term holder SOPR stands at a weekly average of 1.25 and monthly average of 1.16, both above the annual level, pointing to improved market conditions as long-term holders begin realizing profits again. Darkfost highlighted this development merits comparison to the last bear market: near its end, long-term holders also resumed generating profits. He added that moderate profitability in the market is a positive sign that could further lift investors’ outlook for the future.

According to market data from BIT (bit.com), losses in the US stock storage and optical communications sector have narrowed. Breakdown: Storage sector: Micron Technology (MU) down 2.88%, Western Digital (WDC) down 2.11%, SanDisk (SNDK) down 5.68%, Seagate Technology (STX) down 3.62%, SK Hynix (SKHY) down 3.67%. Optical communications concept stocks: Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) down 6.47%, Coherent (COHR) down 7.14%, Credo (CRDO) down 5.69%, Lumentum (LITE) down 1.57%, Nokia (NOK) down 2.99%.

Brent crude oil rose more than 2.4% on Monday, hitting a session high of $107.25 per barrel, as escalating geopolitical risks drove oil prices higher. Russia launched fresh attacks on Ukraine’s energy facilities, while attacks on merchant ships near Oman and around the Strait of Hormuz amplified market concerns over disruptions to oil shipments. Technical analyst The Great Martis previously noted that Brent crude’s daily chart showed a bullish inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, and if it sustains a breakout above $110 per barrel, oil prices could test $150 per barrel next. The call was first issued when Brent was trading around $102 per barrel. The oil rally also stoked market fears of a resurgence in inflation. U.S. September CPI data is set to be released on Wednesday, with markets expecting the headline annual CPI rise to climb from 3.4% to 3.7%. Higher energy prices could push inflation up, keep interest rates elevated, and weigh on risk assets. Driven by higher oil prices and inflation concerns, Bitcoin fell to around $82,528 on Monday, down 1.4% on the day; spot gold traded at roughly $4,165.32 per ounce, down 0.71%, while silver dropped around 0.86% to $60.42 per ounce.

Venture capitalist Alex Lazarow noted in an article that over the past two years, Stripe, Mastercard, and Circle have each acquired U.S. stablecoin infrastructure firm Bridge, U.K.-based BVNK, and Singaporean cross-border payment platform Tazapay respectively. The combined value of the three deals exceeds $3 billion. The three targets were founded between 2020 and 2022, with total combined funding of around $200 million, highlighting that stablecoin payment infrastructure has become a key area for traditional payment giants and crypto firms to compete for a foothold. Specifically, Stripe announced in 2024 it would acquire Bridge for just over $1 billion; Mastercard’s BVNK transaction is valued at up to $1.8 billion total, including $1.5 billion in base consideration and $300 million in contingent consideration; Circle agreed to buy Tazapay for $400 million in stock, with the deal expected to close in 2027. Growth in stablecoin adoption, a gradually clarified regulatory framework, and surging demand for cross-border real-time payments are the primary drivers of these mergers and acquisitions. Data shows that in 2025, adjusted stablecoin transaction volume rose 91% year-over-year to $10.9 trillion, approaching Visa’s $14.2 trillion; real-world payment volume more than doubled to roughly $390 billion. These deals reflect that acquirers prioritize not only stablecoin technology, but also proven business scale, payment networks, and compliance qualifications. As stablecoin payment infrastructure matures, applications such as dollar accounts, stablecoin payment cards, and cross-border remittances are also emerging. More local infrastructure firms similar to Bridge and BVNK may be acquired across global regions in the future.