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BiyaPay Analyst: Fed Rate Decision Tonight to Trigger Crypto Market, Bitcoin $100K Make-or-Break Battle Looms

2025.05.07 19:32:23

On July 5th, the Federal Reserve is set to announce the latest interest rate decision at 2 p.m. ET. The market generally anticipates that it will keep the rate within the range of 4.25%-4.50%, with a probability as high as 97.2%. Nevertheless, Powell's remarks after the meeting may serve as a crucial variable in determining Bitcoin's short-term trend. If the Federal Reserve remains unchanged, Bitcoin may encounter short-term pullback pressure. Currently, the market has partially factored in this expectation. Technically, there is strong support for BTC around $95,000. A slight divergence correction is required on the 4-hour chart, but the daily chart remains above the MA7, maintaining a strong posture. If Powell indicates a dovish stance (such as hinting at a rate cut in June) and there are potential expectations of liquidity injection from the U.S. Treasury, Bitcoin may break through the $97,000 resistance level and move towards $100,000. In an extreme case, if an unexpected rate cut takes place, short positions worth $3 billion may be liquidated, triggering a significant short squeeze. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin options market has witnessed a surge in open positions for $300,000 call options, indicating a bet on a price breakout. On-chain data further reinforces the bullish thesis. The MVRV indicator has returned to a healthy range, and active addresses and whale transaction volumes have shown significant increases, suggesting that large holders are continuously accumulating. BiyaPay, as the world's first multi-asset trading wallet, showcases unique value. It has now linked 30 fiat currencies with 200 cryptocurrencies for instant exchange. Users can directly participate in the U.S. stock/Hong Kong stock markets through a USDT 1:1 exchange with USD, with zero fees for cryptocurrency, spot/contract makers.
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