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Analyst: Ethereum MVRV has shown a diverging trend since 2022, with a key inflection point at the transition to PoS

2025.04.20 14:08:25

On April 20th, on-chain data analyst Murphy released an analysis of ETH based on token flow and value ratio. Since the end of December 2022, the percentage of ETH's on-platform traffic has dropped below 35%. Previously, in September 2021, this number exceeded 50%. This indicates that in the flow in/flow out ratio on the trading platform, ETH used to be on an equal footing with BTC, but now the percentage has significantly decreased, suggesting that the attention to ETH is waning. Starting from December 2022, a clear divergence has emerged between Bitcoin's MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value ratio) (blue line) and Ethereum's MVRV (yellow line). Before this, for 7 years, this indicator always alternated in terms of dominance, with either ETH being stronger or BTC being stronger at different times. However, the blue line has consistently been below the yellow line, indicating that since December 2022 until today, the unrealized profits of ETH holders have always been lower than those of BTC. Whether looking at exchange platform data or on-chain data, the turning point for Ethereum's trend seems to be December 2022. Coincidentally, on September 15, 2022, the Ethereum mainnet merged with the Beacon Chain, completely ending PoW mining and transitioning to the PoS consensus mechanism, and everything changed after that. As the weakening trend of sentiment subsides, the capital inflow into the two major mainstream assets, BTC and ETH, has significantly decreased since December last year. However, BTC still maintains a positive inflow of $5.4 billion in the past 30 days. In contrast, ETH has shifted to a net outflow since February 15 and has seen an outflow of $6.2 billion in the last 30 days as of yesterday. The attitude of funds is a crucial factor in determining price and trends, and for ETH to revive its trend, it will need to wait for renewed attention from capital.
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Robinhood CEO: The company will ramp up investment in builders of the Robinhood Chain, with details to be announced soon.

Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev responded to community questions on X, stating that Robinhood Chain is a top priority for the company. “We never left,” he said. “The builders who showed up early matter a great deal to us. More updates will be coming soon.” Tenev added that he aims to attract the best builders to Robinhood Chain, noting: “We are investing to make this a reality. If you’re building something great, we want to hear your ideas. More details will be announced soon.”

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Federal Reserve's Harker: Further policy tightening required to curb inflation

Cleveland Federal Reserve President Hamrick said the Fed needs to bring monetary policy to a restrictive level to push inflation back to its 2% target. She noted that the current policy stance means inflation could take longer than acceptable to fall, hence "more tightening is needed." Hamrick added that further interest rate hikes may still be required, though the timing is undecided. She favors "smaller, more frequent" adjustments to help businesses and households plan ahead. She pointed out that corporate input costs are rising, and an increasing number of firms are passing these costs to consumers. If prices are no longer constrained by demand, inflation could rise further or stay elevated. She highlighted that the biggest inflation risk is the development of an "inflation mindset" among individuals and businesses, who gradually accept higher inflation levels—this would make it harder for the Fed to return inflation to target, and some signs of this have already emerged. When discussing the rise in U.S. Treasury yields, Hamrick said it is mainly driven by factors including economic growth expectations, market repricing of Fed policy, fiscal pressures, and large-scale bond issuance. She noted that the data center investment boom is boosting growth, but the current financial environment still needs further tightening to help inflation decline. Hamrick also emphasized that the Federal Reserve's independence is "always of utmost importance." (Jinshi)

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Meta CEO Announces Launch of Muse Wonder, a Larger and More Advanced Model.

Dongcha Beating AI News: Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg announced that he will launch two models today, including Muse Wonder, a larger and more advanced model.

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UK High Court rules that claims related to over 61,000 Bitcoin in the Qian Zhimin case are subject to Chinese law, with the funds involved totaling approximately £4.1 billion.

A judgment released by the UK National Archives shows that the UK High Court ruled on the "Blue Sky Grid Rui Case" on October 12, holding that property rights claims filed by Chinese investors over the involved Bitcoin should be governed by Chinese law rather than UK law. The case involves over 61,000 Bitcoin, a key component of the billions of pounds in criminal proceeds recovered by UK law enforcement. The judgment states that the investment scam in question was carried out in China between 2014 and 2017, with total funds involved amounting to approximately 40.228 billion yuan (around ￡4.1 billion). The funds were used to purchase assets including Bitcoin, and the involved Bitcoin was later transferred to the UK. UK police seized relevant equipment and some access keys in 2018, and the assets subsequently recovered included over 61,000 Bitcoin. The court ruled that the investors' locations, the place where false statements were made, the location of fund payments, and the original purchase site of the Bitcoin were all primarily in China, so the relevant property rights should be determined in accordance with Chinese law. The court also rejected the investors' arguments seeking to establish rights under UK law and relevant asset tracing rules. It should be noted that this ruling only addresses which country's law applies to the relevant claims, and does not finally determine whether each investor owns the involved Bitcoin, nor does it decide on the final distribution of the assets. Specific rights under Chinese law and relevant evidence will need to be reviewed in subsequent proceedings.

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Marvell Launches 2nd-Generation CXL Memory Expander, Supporting Up to 9TB of Memory Per Controller.

Marvell has launched its second-generation Structera X 3406 and 3506 CXL memory expanders. A single controller supports up to 9TB of DDR4 or 6TB of DDR5 memory, with 50% more memory channels than the previous generation. The new products adopt CXL 3.2 technology, enabling up to four hosts to share memory resources and delivering a maximum host interconnection bandwidth of 256GB/s. Their built-in LZ4 compression engine offers a maximum compression and decompression throughput of 250GB/s, a five-fold improvement over the prior generation. Marvell stated that the new offerings aim to ease memory capacity and bandwidth bottlenecks in large model inference. In specific large model inference scenarios, they can cut first-byte latency by 40% to 50%; in deep learning recommendation model use cases, the maximum queries per second (QPS) of a single controller can be doubled. Ecosystem partners include AMD, Arm, Alibaba, Samsung, and SK Hynix. The two products are expected to be supplied as samples to customers in the first quarter of 2027.

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Bitcoin rallied then pulled back, dropping over 2%; oil prices climbed to a nearly one-month high, while escalating Middle East tensions have stoked market risk aversion.

Bitcoin rose to $84,254 at one point on Monday before pulling back, with a drop of as much as 2.2%. Uncertainty over the prospects of a Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire and incidents such as oil tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz have amplified market concerns about energy supply. Brent crude climbed to $107.25 per barrel during trading, its highest level since September 16, while WTI crude broke above $94 per barrel. The U.S. will release September’s CPI and PPI data this week, and the oil price rally has further stoked fears of an inflation rebound. Former Goldman Sachs chief foreign exchange strategist Robin Brooks argues that, given traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has improved somewhat, current oil prices may be pricing in excessive risk premiums. In trading, QCP Capital noted that Bitcoin’s options market shows a mix of cautious and bullish expectations: traders are taking defensive positions while still retaining bets on an upward price breakout. The firm stated that if BTC decisively breaks above $87,000, its next target could be $94,000. On-chain and exchange liquidity data show there is approximately $180 million in sell-side liquidity around $84,500, while buy-side support lies near $82,000.

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