Bloomberg: Market Expects Fed to Keep Rates Unchanged, Trump's New Policies Bring Greater Uncertainty

March 19th. According to Bloomberg, all 108 forecasters surveyed by Bloomberg predicted that the Federal Reserve's FOMC will keep its policy unchanged, with the upper limit of the target range at 4.5%. This would mark the second consecutive maintenance of the policy by the Fed after three rate cuts implemented by Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues, totaling 100 basis points at the end of last year. The Fed and the entire economy are facing unusually uncertain economic growth and inflation prospects in the coming months and quarters. On the inflation front, concerns about another increase in consumer prices have been sparked by tariff hikes. The Fed still has the task of bringing prices back to its 2% target. The latest reading of the core personal consumption expenditures index (excluding food and energy) is 2.6%. The Fed's previous year-end inflation rate forecast was 2.5%. Regarding the Fed's new policy rate outlook, the question is whether officials' median forecasts are in line with the December forecast of two rate cuts in 2025. Diane Swonk, Chief Economist at Grant Thornton, said, "Due to the existing uncertainties, the rate-cutting trajectory will be quite divergent."