Analysis: The MVRV curve signals an impending mild rebound for BTC, with a low probability of it dipping to $50,000.

Bank of America Securities chief strategist Hartnett outlined three triggers for a "full risk-off" environment this summer in his latest Fund Flow Report: Mag7 ETF falling below $60, USD/JPY dropping below 110, and the yield curve inverting again. None of these conditions have been met yet, but signals are building. U.S. equity funds have posted a net outflow of $8.5 billion, the first such outflow since March, following a historic $119.2 billion net inflow. The divergence where hyperscale cloud providers continue to underperform chip stocks has put the sustainability of AI capital expenditure at the center of market debate: Apple’s MacBook price hikes and Microsoft’s Xbox price increases are both directly tied to rising memory costs. Vera Rubin rack memory prices have surged 435% cumulatively, and Goldman Sachs projects AI capital expenditure could reach as high as $1.4 trillion by 2027. Hartnett’s core ongoing question is: How much further do cloud providers need to fall before the market begins pricing in capital expenditure cuts? U.S. equity funds have already shifted ahead of time; liquidity flowing out of tech giants is pouring into cyclical assets like semiconductors, small-caps, housing, and REITs, a move the market interprets as a front-run bet on policy shifting toward "affordability." At the asset class level, Hartnett believes gold still holds strong allocation value below $4,000, and going long on long-dated U.S. Treasuries is the most contrarian long-term trade right now. The U.S. dollar is only suitable for short-term holding rather than long-term allocation, and his strategic view is to go long on emerging markets over the long term. Since Fed Chair Waller took office on May 22, U.S. Treasuries have risen 3.2% cumulatively, while stocks have fallen 1.6%, with bonds significantly outperforming.

Samsung Electro-Mechanics is in final negotiations with a major U.S. tech firm over a supply contract for MLCCs (multi-layer ceramic capacitors) for AI servers. Worth around 500 billion won, the deal equals 10% of its component division’s annual revenue last year, making it an extremely large-scale order. Industry sources speculate the client is a leading player with significant clout in the data center sector. Each AI server requires 15,000 to 25,000 MLCCs—over 10 times the number used in a smartphone—with a unit price more than triple that of smartphone-grade MLCCs, earning the component the nickname "golden rice of the AI industry". Samsung Electro-Mechanics currently holds the No.2 position in the global MLCC market with a 20%+ share. The contract is expected to significantly boost its standing in the AI server MLCC market. Industry observers note the deal essentially secures quality validation from a global "big buyer", which will prompt other major tech firms to follow suit. Turning to its glass substrate business, Samsung Electro-Mechanics will formally sign a joint venture agreement with Japan’s Sumitomo Chemical this week. The two firms will invest a combined 500 billion won to set up a glass substrate JV, with Samsung holding a majority stake and contributing around 300 billion won. The JV will be based at the Pyeongtaek plant of Sumitomo Chemical’s South Korean subsidiary Dongwoo Fine-Chem, with production scheduled to launch in early next year. Glass substrates, which offer superior heat resistance to traditional plastic substrates and can accommodate more HBM (high-bandwidth memory) and GPUs, are hailed as "rule changers" for AI semiconductor packaging. Samsung Electro-Mechanics aims to lock in a high-quality supply chain in advance for mass production, while Sumitomo Chemical is using this partnership to enter the next-generation packaging materials market.

According to GMGN data, Solana ecosystem meme coin ANSEM briefly hit a market cap of over $78 million before pulling back to $74 million. It has seen a 356x price surge in 24 hours, with 24-hour trading volume reaching $49.4 million. Today, crypto KOL Ansem announced on social media that, due to Pump.fun’s refusal to distribute airdrops, he is issuing a “stimmy” (stimulus fund) to “the trenches” — a term referring to on-chain meme coin traders. As of press time, Ansem has been posting buy calls continuously to stoke community sentiment. BlockBeats reminds users: Most meme coins lack real-world use cases and are highly volatile; please protect your assets and avoid FOMO.

Serenity has released an analysis on whether automotive and robotics supply chains are converging, taking Germany’s Schaeffler (market cap ~€7.47 billion) as a key case study. Schaeffler has partnered with 45 humanoid robot firms, with its product portfolio covering core components including bearings, gearboxes, sensors/ECUs, actuators, and power electronics. The company estimates its products make up roughly 50% of a humanoid robot’s bill of materials, and targets 10% of the segment’s market share. However, Schaeffler’s 2030 robotics revenue forecast is only in the hundreds of millions of euros—far lower than Elon Musk’s optimistic outlook for the market. Serenity dubs this a typical "sandbagging forecast," a deliberate understatement. Serenity also highlighted other notable targets, such as Nabtesco (focused on joint reducers) and Sanhua Intelligent Controls, which supplies components for Tesla’s Optimus robot. On the investment front, Serenity argues these traditional auto parts firms are currently undervalued due to drag from their core automotive businesses, while humanoid robots and AI-powered vehicles will serve as key growth vectors. The chairman of TSMC recently also cited AI vehicles as a growth vector. But a critical prerequisite is the emergence of killer apps and leading downstream players—similar to ChatGPT or Anthropic—to truly drive the entire upstream supply chain ecosystem. Currently, robotics business accounts for only ~1% of these firms’ total revenue, so the market remains focused on immediate bottlenecks like memory chips and MLCCs in the short term. Serenity predicts that as humanoid robots evolve along different architectural routes, future "unexpected supply chain bottleneck surprises"—akin to HBM or MLCC—will emerge, bringing pricing power and revaluation opportunities for early-positioned companies. In terms of timing, post-2027 is likely to act as a clear catalyst.

Jupiter’s Strategic Reserve Trust Fund, nicknamed the Jupiter Litterbox Trust, added 177,570 JUP tokens yesterday, worth approximately $39,000. This month, the fund has accumulated 13,346,232 JUP in purchases, valued at around $2.93 million. As of press time, its total JUP purchases reach 142,703,464, worth roughly $31.4 million. The Jupiter Strategic Reserve Trust Fund is Jupiter’s official on-chain treasury, with 50% of the protocol’s revenue automatically allocated to it. It uses smart contracts to continuously buy and hold JUP tokens on the open market, earning the community’s "Litterbox Trust" moniker.

According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi (@ai_9684xtpa), a whale made a single purchase of SK Hynix (ticker: SKHYNIX) worth $5.455 million on Binance. Market data shows that the SKHYNIX contract price on Binance briefly rose to $1,830 and has now fallen back to $1,786.