Serenity: Automotive and robotics supply chains are converging, positioning Germany’s Schaeffler – a key player in core components – for a pricing revaluation.

Serenity has released an analysis on whether automotive and robotics supply chains are converging, taking Germany’s Schaeffler (market cap ~€7.47 billion) as a key case study. Schaeffler has partnered with 45 humanoid robot firms, with its product portfolio covering core components including bearings, gearboxes, sensors/ECUs, actuators, and power electronics. The company estimates its products make up roughly 50% of a humanoid robot’s bill of materials, and targets 10% of the segment’s market share. However, Schaeffler’s 2030 robotics revenue forecast is only in the hundreds of millions of euros—far lower than Elon Musk’s optimistic outlook for the market. Serenity dubs this a typical "sandbagging forecast," a deliberate understatement. Serenity also highlighted other notable targets, such as Nabtesco (focused on joint reducers) and Sanhua Intelligent Controls, which supplies components for Tesla’s Optimus robot. On the investment front, Serenity argues these traditional auto parts firms are currently undervalued due to drag from their core automotive businesses, while humanoid robots and AI-powered vehicles will serve as key growth vectors. The chairman of TSMC recently also cited AI vehicles as a growth vector. But a critical prerequisite is the emergence of killer apps and leading downstream players—similar to ChatGPT or Anthropic—to truly drive the entire upstream supply chain ecosystem. Currently, robotics business accounts for only ~1% of these firms’ total revenue, so the market remains focused on immediate bottlenecks like memory chips and MLCCs in the short term. Serenity predicts that as humanoid robots evolve along different architectural routes, future "unexpected supply chain bottleneck surprises"—akin to HBM or MLCC—will emerge, bringing pricing power and revaluation opportunities for early-positioned companies. In terms of timing, post-2027 is likely to act as a clear catalyst.