Citi Raises Oil Price Forecast Amid Iran Conflict Background

March 12 — Data from Bitget shows international oil prices have pared gains, with WTI and Brent crude trimming their increases to 7.4% and 5.9% respectively, settling at $95.06/bbl and $96.94/bbl. Earlier, Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister noted: “Iran previously allowed some vessels to transit the Strait of Hormuz. We did not place mines in the Strait of Hormuz.”

On March 12, identity verification firm VeryAI announced it has closed a $10 million funding round led by Polychain Capital, with participation from the Berggruen Institute, Anagram, and Solana co-founder Toly. VeryAI is building a privacy-first verification system leveraging palmprint biometrics and encrypted identity technology, with the goal of distinguishing real humans from bots, deepfakes, and synthetic identities at internet-wide scale.

On March 12, MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor posted: “You know, there’s a time delay between when we buy Bitcoin and when its price rises.”

March 12 – In his first statement since assuming office, Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei declared the Strait of Hormuz must remain closed, adding all U.S. military bases in the region should shut immediately or face attacks. He also noted research has been conducted on other fronts where adversaries lack experience and are highly vulnerable, with these fronts potentially activated if the war continues and such action is deemed appropriate. Analyst Dara Doyle stated the market views Khamenei’s remarks as strongly hardline, with little indication Iran is prepared to compromise with the U.S. or Israel. Per Bitget data: - WTI crude oil rose over 9% intraday to $96.42 per barrel; - Spot gold fell 0.93% intraday to $5,128 per ounce; - U.S. major stock indexes declined: Nasdaq down 1.82%, Dow Jones Industrial Average down 1.45%, S&P 500 down 1.39%; - Cryptocurrencies remained resilient amid market volatility: Bitcoin was up 0.05% in 24 hours at $70,399, Ethereum up 0.

**March 12 – Bond traders have stopped fully pricing in Federal Reserve rate cut expectations for 2026.** Rate swaps linked to Fed policy meeting dates showed traders on Thursday expected just a 24 basis point (bp) rate cut this year—less than a full 25bp cut—versus ~30bp of easing expected the prior night. The shift comes as U.S. Treasury yields have fluctuated, with the two-year yield (most sensitive to Fed policy moves) rising 4bp to nearly 3.70%. U.S. bonds faced pressure this week as investors fret the Middle East conflict will keep pushing energy prices higher, fueling a resurgence in inflation. (FXStreet)

On March 12, per LookOnChain monitoring, the DNA Fund-affiliated wallet (0x2b0d) withdrew 11,067 ETH (worth $22.83 million) from Kraken two hours ago.