Analyst: Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Selling at a Loss, Market Still Under Pressure

On March 9, cryptocurrency market analyst Axel noted in a recent report that the Bitcoin Short-Term Holder SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) has been below 1.0 for seven of the past eight days—indicating this cohort is systematically selling at a loss. Only on March 4, when BTC briefly touched $70,800, did the indicator edge above 1.0 before quickly falling back to loss-selling territory. Meanwhile, the Short-Term Holder Supply metric has dropped from roughly 6.06 million BTC to 5.92 million over the past two weeks—a total reduction of 140,000 BTC. This group’s average cost basis is around $89,028, while the current market price hovers near $67,175, marking a 24% gap and significant unrealized losses. Axel explained the supply decline could reflect two scenarios: either capitulation (realizing losses) or tokens naturally “maturing” into long-term holdings. The wide gap between cost basis and current prices has created a structural supply surplus. If prices rise, some short-term holders may use the rebound to exit without further losses—further dampening upside momentum. A clear market shift signal will require the SOPR to stabilize above 1.0 for several consecutive days and prices to rise in tandem.