JPMorgan Warns U.S. Stocks Could Fall 10% on Middle East Conflict, Market Not Yet Priced In

**March 9 (Reuters) – JPMorgan’s trading division warned Monday that a potential Iran conflict could trigger a 10% pullback in the S&P 500 from its peak, with U.S. stock traders unprepared for such a downturn.** Andrew Tyler, chief of JPMorgan’s Global Market Insights, said he has turned tactically bearish on U.S. equities as the Middle East conflict escalates without signs of easing and oil prices surge above $100 a barrel. A 10% pullback would push the S&P 500 to around 6270 points—roughly 7% below last Friday’s close, he noted. Tyler added investors’ current positions are “overall neutral, lacking extreme risk-off positioning” because traders had expected the situation to de-escalate. Energy stocks saw net selling last week, but oil prices jumped past $100 after several Gulf nations announced production cuts, stoking concerns over a long-term supply shock and stagflation risks. Should the conflict prove short-lived, the risks could fade quickly, Tyler said. “Once a clear path to de-escalation emerges, this tactical bearish call will end, as underlying macro fundamentals continue to support risk assets.”