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glassnode: Bitcoin's short-term support is at $83.4k, spot and ETF demand recovery is key to stabilization

2 hours ago

On January 29, Glassnode released its weekly report noting that Bitcoin continues to consolidate around structurally critical on-chain levels, with a delicate balance between holder confidence and marginal demand. Short-term holders’ positions remain weak. As shown in the chart below, the lower bound of the current compression range (–1 standard deviation) sits at $83,400—this is a recent key support level, and a break below it could trigger further price retracement toward the true market value near $80,700. That said, the overall capital flow pattern has stabilized. ETF selling pressure has eased, and spot market positions are showing initial signs of improvement—particularly in offshore markets—indicating a reemergence of buyer interest. Meanwhile, the derivatives market remains restrained: neutral funding rates suggest low market leverage, minimizing price impact from speculative momentum. Options positioning adjustments reinforce this cautious stance. Skew has turned bearish, short-term protection pricing has risen, and traders’ gamma values have fallen below zero, increasing the likelihood of sharp price swings during periods of market volatility. Looking ahead, the market’s direction hinges on whether demand from spot and ETF channels can be sustained. Consistent positive capital inflows and stronger spot buying will support trend continuation, while ongoing fragility and rising downside hedging demand leave the market vulnerable to further consolidation or a deeper pullback.
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If Bitcoin breaks $91,000, mainstream CEX total short liquidation volume will reach 1.133 billion

Per Coinglass data as of January 29, Bitcoin’s mainstream centralized exchange (CEX) short liquidation intensity would hit $1.133 billion if the token rebounds above $91,000. Conversely, a drop below $87,000 would trigger $494 million in cumulative long liquidation intensity across major CEXs. BlockBeats Note: Liquidation charts do not display the exact number of contracts or precise value of liquidated positions. The bars on these charts instead reflect the relative importance of each liquidation cluster compared to adjacent clusters—i.e., "intensity." This means the chart illustrates how significantly the underlying asset’s price will react when it hits a given level: a taller bar signals a stronger price response due to a liquidity cascade at that point.

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The HYPE Whale, a major long position holder, withdrew a $7 million collateral, pushing the liquidation price up to $25

Jan. 29 — Per HyperInsight monitoring, a whale suspected of insider trading tied to HYPE’s listing withdrew ~$7M in released collateral from Hyperliquid last night after HYPE’s price broke above $34. This move lifted its liquidation price from ~$20 to $25.04. The address built a massive long position ahead of HYPE’s Robinhood listing, with an average entry price of $38.67. It still holds the largest on-chain HYPE long position (~$43.7M) and saw its unrealized loss tick up slightly today to ~$9.7M — representing an 111% loss rate. Notably, since its position dipped below its cost basis and racked up heavy unrealized losses, the address has never rebalanced or trimmed its position, opting to “hodl” the entire time. Its unrealized loss previously peaked at nearly $26M.

9 minutes ago

A whale has added 100,000 HYPE to their long position, increasing their holdings to $5.3 million

As of January 29, monitoring from HyperInsight (via https://t.me/HyperInsight) indicates that at 12:52 local time today, a whale wallet starting with 0x150a expanded its HYPE long position by 100,000 tokens at an average price of roughly $32.046. Currently, the address holds two leveraged positions: - 5x leveraged HYPE long: 170,000 tokens (~$5.3 million), with an unrealized profit of ~$350,000 and a liquidation price of ~$23.1; - 20x leveraged BTC long: 4,501 coins (~$400,000), with an unrealized profit of ~$560.30.

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The U.S. Government Shutdown Probability on Polymarket Significantly Decreases This Week

January 29 — Key updates per *The New York Times* and Polymarket: 1. **Negotiations**: President Trump and Senate Minority Leader Schumer are in talks to avert a government shutdown. The preliminary plan splits Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding from the broader appropriations bill; the remaining measure (funding military and health projects) is expected to pass before Friday’s midnight deadline. 2. **Temporary Fix**: Congress will weigh short-term DHS funding to avoid a shutdown and buy time to draft new legislation. 3. **Market Odds**: Polymarket data (as of 12:54 PM ET Jan. 29, 2026) shows the probability of a U.S. government shutdown this Saturday has plummeted to 40%—a 29% intraday drop, driven by positive negotiation news. ### Notes on American language habits: - Uses **concise, active phrasing** (e.g., "splits" instead of "is to separate," "weigh" instead of "consider"). - Employs **news-specific terms** (e.g., "avert" for "avoid," "odds" for "probabi

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A trader closed a short position on BTC, ETH, and HYPE, with a total profit of $71,600.

On January 29, per HyperInsight monitoring, a trader closed out short positions in BTC, ETH, and HYPE at 12:43, netting a total profit of $71,600. The address currently holds no open positions and is on the sidelines. The address’s transaction history shows multiple small-value deposits; all past orders used isolated margin, and the trader frequently switched between long and short positions.

9 minutes ago

COMEX Silver Inventories Hit Lowest Level Since Last March, Potentially Triggering Silver Short Squeeze

**January 29 Update: COMEX Silver Inventories Hit March 2025 Low Amid Full-Blown Short Squeeze** The Kobeissi Letter reports COMEX silver inventories have fallen 34 million ounces from their peak to 415 million ounces—marking the lowest level since March 2025—as the silver short squeeze battle intensifies. The inventory drop signals robust physical demand, with short sellers grappling to secure physical silver to settle futures contracts. When these traders can’t source enough physical supply, they’re forced to pay the higher prices sellers demand. This dynamic will push silver prices higher, pressuring more traders to cover positions to avoid losses and tightening market conditions further.

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