The U.S. Government Shutdown Probability on Polymarket Significantly Decreases This Week

January 29 — Key updates per *The New York Times* and Polymarket: 1. **Negotiations**: President Trump and Senate Minority Leader Schumer are in talks to avert a government shutdown. The preliminary plan splits Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding from the broader appropriations bill; the remaining measure (funding military and health projects) is expected to pass before Friday’s midnight deadline. 2. **Temporary Fix**: Congress will weigh short-term DHS funding to avoid a shutdown and buy time to draft new legislation. 3. **Market Odds**: Polymarket data (as of 12:54 PM ET Jan. 29, 2026) shows the probability of a U.S. government shutdown this Saturday has plummeted to 40%—a 29% intraday drop, driven by positive negotiation news. ### Notes on American language habits: - Uses **concise, active phrasing** (e.g., "splits" instead of "is to separate," "weigh" instead of "consider"). - Employs **news-specific terms** (e.g., "avert" for "avoid," "odds" for "probability," "intraday drop" for clarity). - Adds **contextual details** (e.g., "ET" for Eastern Time, a standard in U.S. news). - Simplifies repetition (e.g., "remaining measure" instead of repeating "the rest of the bill"). (Note: The 2026 date may be a typo, as Trump left office in 2021, but the text retains the user’s input.)