Placeholder Partner: Bull Top Signal Detected, Planning to Re-enter BTC at $75k or Lower

On November 14th, Chris Burniske, the former crypto lead at Ark Invest and the current partner at Placeholder VC, recently stated in an article that although this crypto cycle has been disappointing, core assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are still in a historical high range. Investors need to be cautious about short-term pullback risks while maintaining a long-term allocation. Burniske pointed out that the sharp drop on October 11th has had a lasting impact on the market, making it difficult to quickly generate sustained buying pressure. The monthly charts of BTC and ETH show cracks, but they are still in the "top range." Meanwhile, the decline in MicroStrategy (MSTR) stock price and the warnings in the gold and credit markets indicate that a broader asset adjustment is imminent. "This bull market is different, and the next bear market will also be different," Burniske wrote. Based on this, he has adjusted his position and plans to re-enter when BTC falls to $75,000 or lower, emphasizing a gradual strategy that is not all-in or all-out. In his portfolio disclosure, Burniske revealed that approximately 39% of his personal holdings are in "free cash" (money market funds), and 61% are in long-term capital, including non-crypto assets. He warned that private market valuations are approaching a cycle top, and if BTC continues to decline, no single crypto asset will thrive on its own. He also cited historical lessons, such as gold soaring before the crashes in 2000 and 2008, reminding investors to avoid blindly chasing the "escape pod" during times of overvaluation in all assets. Looking ahead, Burniske is cautious about the return of liquidity, believing that it will be late and less stimulating than in 2021, possibly leading to a shift towards "four-year fundamentalism." He observed that characteristics of a bull market peak have emerged: bullish news (such as Robinhood-related developments) no longer triggering rebounds, while a bear market bottom requires the invalidation of bearish news. He urges investors to be patient and resilient, especially in the AI and crypto fields.