U.S. CPI: +2.9% YEAR-OVER-YEAR (EST. +2.9%); U.S. CORE CPI: +3.2% YEAR-OVER-YEAR (EST. +3.3%)

On May 2, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) General Civil Aviation Authority announced that airspace capacity across the country has returned to normal, and it has lifted previously imposed precautionary measures. The authority confirmed the decision followed a comprehensive assessment of operational and safety conditions—coordinated with all relevant stakeholders—while emphasizing ongoing real-time monitoring to uphold the highest standards of aviation safety.

May 2 – Iran’s Chief Justice Ebrahim Raisi said Wednesday that Iran does not shy away from negotiations with the United States but strongly rejects U.S. coercion. He noted negotiations are reasonable and logical, but they do not mean accepting U.S. dictates—nor can Iran tolerate the U.S. imposing its will through threats. At the same time, Iran does not seek war and hopes no conflict breaks out. (CCTV International News)

**May 2 –** Nick Timiraos, often dubbed the “Fed’s Mouthpiece,” reported that the Federal Reserve’s internal debate over its interest rate path has hit a critical turning point. Officials are no longer arguing about when to resume rate cuts—instead, they’re now discussing the conditions that could justify a rate hike. In the statement from Wednesday’s policy meeting, three regional Fed presidents (Dallas, Cleveland, Minneapolis) dissented, formally opposing the retention of language suggesting “the next move is more likely to be a rate cut.” Outgoing Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the committee held a “lively discussion,” noting procedural reasons kept the guidance in place for now—but emphasized the panel’s stance is shifting from dovish to neutral. He added the dissenters’ arguments “completely hold water.” The shift is driven by a sustained energy shock tied to major closures in the Strait of Hormuz. Unlike past one-off price swings that faded on their own, this supply di

**May 2 – Sources report seven OPEC+ members have reached a preliminary agreement to boost June oil production by ~188,000 barrels per day (bpd), even as the UAE exited the group. The increase aligns closely with last month’s 206,000 bpd figure (after excluding the UAE’s share), signaling OPEC+ is sticking to its usual decision-making framework. The seven countries plan an online meeting this Sunday.** Currently, US-Iran tensions have disrupted most shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, hitting OPEC producers harder than the group’s agreed output targets. As a result, the latest production hike is largely symbolic. The UAE previously announced an unexpected withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1. Per PolyBeats monitoring, prediction market Polymarket shows: - 75% chance WTI crude closes at $110/bbl on any single day this month; - 45% chance for $120/bbl; - 22% chance for $130/bbl. Markets still anticipate a sharp oil price surge.

May 2nd — Per HTX market data, several altcoins posted notable gains today, including: - **BIO**: 24-hour price up 25.4%, now trading at $0.0515. On the news front, Bio Protocol is set to conduct a PEPTAI token sale allocation, with 20% of the allocation reserved for BIO token stakers. - **KNC**: 24-hour price increase of 20.4%, currently trading at $0.165. - **BABY**: 24-hour price rise of 18.6%, now at $0.0175. Among tokens in the Binance Alpha sector, several saw sharp surges: **LAB** led the pack with a 24-hour jump of over 206%, now trading at $2.1. Other Alpha tokens include: - **Crybaby**: 24-hour gain of 70.6%, current market cap of $1.45 million. - **UB**: 24-hour increase of 59.3%, current market cap of $4.74 billion. - **ARIAIP**: 24-hour rise of 58.4%, current market cap of $1 million. - **B**: 24-hour gain of 55.4%, current market cap of $3.27 billion. - **Freedom of Money**: 24-hour increase of 43%, current market cap of $7.8 million. ### Notes on

On May 2nd, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr noted that Bitcoin has entered the lower range of the Adjusted Realized Price Bands model—an area where a market bottom may start to form, though the process won’t wrap up quickly. The analyst estimates bottoming typically takes around six months. A genuine bull market reversal won’t stem from sentiment-driven or partial rebounds; it requires the market to rediscover forward-looking value and see long-term real demand flow back in.