U.S. CPI: +2.9% YEAR-OVER-YEAR (EST. +2.9%); U.S. CORE CPI: +3.2% YEAR-OVER-YEAR (EST. +3.3%)

**March 15 (Kobeissi Letter) — Amid the Iran war, S&P 500 futures liquidity has fallen to $5.1 million, near the lowest level since April 2025’s “Liberation Day.” The reading marks a 61% drop from its historical average of ~$13 million, per Goldman Sachs data, which flags a level below $7 million as a market stress signal.** **Analysis: Low liquidity means a multi-million-dollar order can move the S&P 500 by one point — echoing the volatility triggered by the 2025 tariff announcement. This amplifies institutional trade impacts, so investors should brace for extreme swings.**

On March 15, Galaxy Research Director Alex Thorn stated that the U.S. crypto regulation bill—the CLARITY Act—will see its 2026 passage probability drop sharply if it fails to secure a Senate committee hearing by the end of April. The bill must also advance to the Senate floor for a full vote in early May, he added. Current controversy over stablecoin rewards is seen as a key hurdle, but Thorn noted that even if this issue is resolved, other disputes—including DeFi, developer protections, SEC authority, and ethical considerations—could still pose challenges.

On March 15, Swiss Post’s PostFinance expanded its cryptocurrency services, adding six new assets: Algorand, Arbitrum, NEAR Protocol, Stellar, USDC, and Sui. This brings the total number of supported digital assets to 22. The bank noted that since launching its crypto trading services in 2024, it has opened more than 36,000 customer portfolios and processed over 565,000 transactions. (Crowdfund Insider)

March 15: Aave published a retrospective on a swap incident, noting that a user traded roughly $50.43 million in aEthUSDT for around $36,000 in aEthAAVE via the CoW Swap path on the Aave frontend—with a price impact of roughly 99.9%. Aave clarified the transaction occurred on a third-party swap protocol and did not impact the core lending protocol. The incident stemmed from the user executing a large order in an extremely low-liquidity market and accepting a high-risk quote. Aave announced plans to roll out the Aave Shield feature, which will, by default, block swaps with price impacts exceeding 25%.

March 15th Reuters reported on March 15th that three sources familiar with the matter said the Trump administration has rejected Middle Eastern allies’ attempts to launch diplomatic talks aimed at ending the Iran conflict. Two senior Iranian officials stated Iran will refuse any ceasefire until the U.S. halts its attacks, adding several countries have been trying to mediate conflict resolution. Both Washington and Tehran have shown little interest, signaling readiness for a prolonged conflict—despite rising civilian casualties and Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has sent oil prices soaring. A U.S. strike on Iran’s key oil export hub Kharg Island late Friday underscored Trump’s determination to press ahead with military action. Iran’s new Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei had previously vowed to block the Strait of Hormuz and threatened to escalate attacks on neighboring countries.

On March 15, Reuters reported that three sources familiar with the situation said the Trump administration rejected attempts by Middle Eastern allies to launch diplomatic talks aimed at ending the Iran conflict. Two senior Iranian officials stated Iran, in turn, has ruled out any ceasefire until U.S. attacks cease, adding several countries have tried to mediate an end to the violence. Washington and Tehran show little interest in talks, signaling both sides are preparing for a prolonged conflict—even as escalating violence has killed civilians and Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has sent oil prices surging. A U.S. strike late Friday on Iran’s key oil export hub on Khark Island underscored Trump’s resolve to press ahead with his military offensive. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had previously vowed to block the Strait of Hormuz and threatened to step up attacks on neighboring countries.