U.S. CPI: +2.9% YEAR-OVER-YEAR (EST. +2.9%); U.S. CORE CPI: +3.2% YEAR-OVER-YEAR (EST. +3.3%)

**CNBC: IEA’s Largest-Ever Oil Reserve Release Signals Fears of Prolonged Iran Conflict** March 12 — The International Energy Agency (IEA) has unveiled its biggest-ever oil reserve release plan, a move that signals energy markets expect the Iran conflict could last far longer than initially anticipated, per CNBC. Key analyst takes on the historic announcement: - Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, said some market participants interpret the IEA’s action as pointing to a conflict stretching for several weeks. - Saul Kavonic, an energy analyst at MST Marquee, noted the release’s scale underscores how severe oil shortage risks are — a clear sign the IEA does not expect the war to end imminently. - Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, added traders recognize the release will only partially offset shortages from the Strait of Hormuz blockade. “Oil prices could keep rising unless there’s a ceasefire or Iran’s military capabilities decline enough to allow tan

March 12 (FX168) — Goldman Sachs now expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points apiece in September and December 2026, revising its prior forecast that had called for rate cuts in June and September.

March 12th — JPMorgan economists said sustained high oil prices could push some Asian central banks toward a hawkish monetary policy stance, noting the recent surge in crude oil and natural gas prices has delivered a trade shock to many regional economies. Fiscal policy is likely to be the first line of defense across the region to cushion household impacts, they added. Higher oil prices may raise the odds of policy tightening in Singapore and Malaysia, while reducing the chance of rate cuts in Indonesia and the Philippines, per the economists. For the Bank of Korea, whether to hike interest rates will hinge on whether the oil price-driven shock persists and is significant enough to affect inflation expectations and trigger a second-round effect on core inflation, their analysis indicated. (Source: FX678)

On March 12, Bloomberg reported that U.S. prosecutors are urging a judge to reject FTX co-founder Sam Bankman-Fried’s request for a retrial, arguing he has failed to prove his conviction was unjust. SBF is currently serving a 25-year prison sentence, which was imposed in 2023 after a jury found him guilty of fraud and conspiracy in connection with the collapse of the FTX cryptocurrency exchange.

March 12: LookOnChain data shows the "On-Chain Crude Oil Max Short" whale is currently facing a $2.93 million loss. The whale is closing a portion of its position to mitigate losses, with the new position’s liquidation price set at $111.85.

March 12, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chairman Mike Selig stated on the All-In Podcast that his core goals include shaping transformative policies for emerging technologies and financial products—with cryptocurrency regulation a top priority. Selig noted ongoing legislative efforts with David Sacks to pass a bill that would grant the CFTC broad regulatory authority over the crypto spot market, calling the legislation a "critical step" the agency is ready to implement once signed by the President. Another agenda item is modernizing rules for on-chain systems, blockchain networks, and digital assets—including forward-looking regulations to adapt to innovations like artificial intelligence (AI). "Our regulatory framework still needs significant updates to accommodate these advances," he said. The CFTC is also partnering with the SEC to draft a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to share information, coordinate on specific issues, and avoid future turf wars. Cl