U.S. CPI: +2.9% YEAR-OVER-YEAR (EST. +2.9%); U.S. CORE CPI: +3.2% YEAR-OVER-YEAR (EST. +3.3%)

Expectations of easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran have risen, driving a broad rebound in global risk assets. The New York Times reported that the U.S. is preparing to allow previously evacuated diplomatic staff to return to its Middle East embassies, leading markets to believe Washington does not expect a full-scale conflict with Iran in the near term. Brent crude oil briefly fell below $90 per barrel, dropping more than 3% on the day; WTI crude oil also declined by around 3%. U.S. stock futures rose, with S&P 500 futures up 0.4% and Nasdaq 100 futures gaining 0.9%. The semiconductor sector led gains, with Nvidia rising around 0.9% in pre-market trading, on track to end a seven-day losing streak. AI-related stocks including Micron and Seagate also saw notable strength. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell by roughly 3 basis points to 4.66%, with lower bond yields supporting risk assets. In the crypto market, Bitcoin (BTC) briefly broke above $80,000 for the first time since mid-May, though its gains later narrowed. Markets attribute BTC’s rise to a resurgence of bets on a weaker U.S. dollar and recent intervention in the bond market by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, which pushed some funds to seek dollar-alternative assets. Meanwhile, billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller wrote an op-ed in The Wall Street Journal criticizing Bessent’s bond market intervention, stating, “Governments that try to push prices away from fundamentals always fail in the end.” Markets are now closely watching Nvidia’s earnings, U.S. PCE inflation data, and remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium this Friday, as these events could further shape market and interest rate expectations for September.

Several Wall Street institutions have released updated individual stock ratings and target price adjustments. Goldman Sachs raised Coinbase’s target price from $173 to $196, maintaining its "Buy" rating, noting that a sustained improvement in the crypto market environment and growth in new businesses such as derivatives and prediction markets will bring additional upside potential for COIN. Raymond James upgraded AMD’s rating from "Outperform" to "Strong Buy" and lifted its target price from $565 to $641. Bank of America maintained "Buy" ratings for NVIDIA, Marvell, and Micron (MU), stating that semiconductor stocks including NVDA, MRVL, MU, and AMD offer more attractive allocation opportunities. Additionally, Canaccord maintained a "Buy" rating for Strategy, raising its target price from $130 to $175. Wolfe maintained an "Outperform" rating for Netflix, increasing its target price from $84 to $95. In other rating moves, Morgan Stanley upgraded Dynatrace to "Overweight"; UBS upgraded Fluence to "Neutral"; Wolfe upgraded Moderna to "In Line With Sector"; Wells Fargo upgraded Shift4 Payments to "Overweight".

Yesterday, BTC spot demand was roughly on par with the previous day, while demand in the futures market continued to rise, exerting upward pressure on BTC prices. Currently, whales are actively accumulating BTC futures positions, and once they complete their position building, a larger-scale rally may follow. Retail capital is expected to enter the market after the first leg of the rally, driving a further increase in spot demand, which could trigger a stronger upward move. Analysts note that the market is still in the early stages of a bull run, and a truly large-scale rally will unfold only after BTC spot demand rebounds significantly. Recent market data also shows notable growth in BTC futures open interest and demand, yet spot demand remains the key variable to gauge whether the rally can sustain.

JPMorgan Chase reaffirmed its "overweight" rating on SpaceX (SPCX.O) and a $240 price target, citing growing confidence in the prospects of its Grok artificial intelligence. The bank highlighted SpaceX's acquisition of Cursor, with reports noting that Cursor has an annual recurring revenue (ARR) of approximately $40 billion, 75% of which comes from enterprise business. JPMorgan expects Cursor to strengthen SpaceX's enterprise AI strategy, model training data, and Grok's performance.

BTC’s recent rally to $80,000 was mainly driven by forced short covering rather than a large influx of new buying. Glassnode data shows that as short positions were liquidated, BTC futures open interest fell to a 5-month low of around 587,584 BTC. A price rise fueled by forced short covering is distinctly different from active buying by new capital, with the former potentially signaling relatively limited sustainability of the rally. Earlier, when BTC broke through the $70,000 mark, over $4 billion in short positions were liquidated within two days, further amplifying upward momentum.

Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket both show a higher probability that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will continue to rise this year. Kalshi data indicates there is a 56% chance the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will reach or exceed 4.75% by the end of 2026, and a 27% chance it will break through 5%. Polymarket, meanwhile, puts the probability that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will rise above 4.8% at least once this year at roughly two-thirds. Although U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is attempting to push yields lower via measures including expanding long-term U.S. Treasury repurchases, the market response has been unoptimistic. Barclays strategists argue that factors such as sticky inflation, fiscal deficits, Treasury supply, and term premiums could still drive yields higher, estimating the fair value of the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield at around 4.95%, about 25 basis points above current levels. Additionally, rising Japanese government bond yields and increased AI-related capital expenditures may further erode overseas investors’ demand for U.S. Treasuries. Meanwhile, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hovering around 4.7% has begun to create stiffer competition for U.S. stocks, and the market appears to be gradually shifting from the "TINA" (There Is No Alternative) era to the "TARA" (There Are Reasonable Alternatives) era.