U.S. CPI: +2.9% YEAR-OVER-YEAR (EST. +2.9%); U.S. CORE CPI: +3.2% YEAR-OVER-YEAR (EST. +3.3%)

June 12 — U.S.-Iran relations appear poised for a potential peace breakthrough Thursday morning, as President Trump announced Iran’s Supreme Leader has agreed to a deal expected to be signed this weekend. But reaction from Iran has been mixed: Initially, Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs dismissed all talk of an agreement as mere speculation, though Fars News Agency — a media outlet affiliated with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps — now states that with the U.S. having accepted Iran’s proposed agreement text, there is a strong likelihood Iran has given its approval. Here’s a breakdown of the latest developments: ### UNITED STATES - Trump: The agreement is on track to be signed this weekend, with the Supreme Leader’s approval already secured; all parties in Iran have signed off on the U.S.-Iran deal. No firm deadline is set, but once the deal is finalized, the U.S. will lift sanctions. - U.S. Media: Three major points of contention between the two nations have narrowed thanks

June 12 – Per Bitget market data, Trump "TACOed" (short for Take Another Cycle Out) this morning, scrapping the planned strike against Iran and signaling a potential agreement could be reached as early as this weekend. The news triggered a sharp rally in U.S. equities: the Nasdaq 100 closed up roughly 3.5% – its best single-day performance in over a year. The broader Nasdaq index rose more than 2.5%, led by tech stocks, with the semiconductor sector surging 8%. Leading gains across U.S. semiconductor and storage names included: Marvell Technology (MRVL): +11.13% Intel (INTC): +9.27% AMD: +7.97% Qualcomm (QCOM): +6.15% Seagate Technology (STX): +6.38% Western Digital (WDC): +8% SanDisk (SNDK): +14.5% Micron Technology (MU): +11.6% On the bond front, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropped 10 basis points to 4.45% in a single session. The 7-year Treasury saw the steepest move, with its yield falling 12 basis points. Meanwhile, international crude futures slumped: Br

On June 12, Trump stated, “We’ve just clinched a major war and peace agreement with Iran. The final deal could wrap up in the next few days, and the signing might happen in Europe. The Strait of Hormuz will open immediately after we ink the agreement. We could sign the Iran deal as soon as this weekend, with Vice President Vance on hand.” Trump also noted, “For this Iran agreement, I’ve learned Iran’s Supreme Leader has greenlit it. Once the deal is signed, the U.S. will lift the associated sanctions.”

On June 12, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) announced that after securing regulatory approval, it will offer 24/7 trading for new, smaller-sized crude oil and gold contracts. The new crude oil contract will be one-tenth the size of CME’s existing Micro WTI Crude Oil futures contract and is set to debut on August 30. Trading for the exchange’s current 1-ounce Gold futures contract will switch to 24/7 operation starting July 26. Derek Sammann, CME Group’s Global Head of Commodity Markets, stated: “Amid geopolitical uncertainty, we’re offering properly sized, 24/7 accessible regulated products that let traders manage their risk exposure at any time news breaks.”

June 12 (Fars News Agency) — The draft agreement proposed by Iran has been accepted by the U.S., making it highly probable that Tehran will grant its approval. However, Iran has not yet submitted a final response.

June 12 (Axios) — Former President Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed a U.S.-Iran agreement was imminent, a assertion Tehran has not yet confirmed, Axios reports. However, three sources familiar with the talks said key disagreements were resolved during Wednesday’s meeting between Iranian officials and Qatari mediators. Negotiations in Tehran ran late into Wednesday night, as Qatari envoy Ali Shamkhani and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi worked to bridge remaining gaps between the U.S. and Iran. Both sides — the Qatari and Iranian — expressed confidence Wednesday that they had finalized a text the U.S. would accept. Progress has narrowed rifts on three core issues: the mechanism for unfreezing Iranian assets (Tehran’s top priority), arrangements for reopening the Strait of Hormuz during a 60-day ceasefire, and talks on Iran’s nuclear program within that ceasefire period. Iranian officials told multiple countries on Thursday that the Tehran talks produced a preliminary agreem