U.S. CPI: +2.9% YEAR-OVER-YEAR (EST. +2.9%); U.S. CORE CPI: +3.2% YEAR-OVER-YEAR (EST. +3.3%)

On February 15, a senior U.S. government official told Axios that the Pentagon is weighing ending its collaboration with AI firm Anthropic, as the company is imposing restrictions on the military’s use of its models. The Pentagon has been pushing the four leading AI labs to allow military use of their tools for “all lawful purposes” — including sensitive areas like weapon development, intelligence collection, and battlefield operations. Anthropic has rejected these terms, and after months of tense negotiations, the Pentagon has grown frustrated. The company insists two areas must remain off-limits: mass surveillance of the American public and fully autonomous weapon systems. The official noted there is significant gray area around which scenarios fall into these categories. Additionally, the Pentagon finds it unworkable to negotiate with Anthropic for every specific use case, or if Anthropic’s Claude tool unexpectedly blocks certain applications. “Everything is on the table,”

Feb 15 at Consensus Hong Kong: Sui executives Stephen Mackintosh and Evan Cheng flagged 2025 as the "watershed year" for institutional crypto adoption, as institutional awareness of and demand for crypto asset allocations has surged since the Genius Act took effect. Mackintosh added that usage of the Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) tool has jumped, spot Bitcoin ETFs have launched successfully, and major trading firms like Citadel and Jane Street have entered the space—all signs institutions are ramping up crypto infrastructure buildout and talent pipelines. Even as market sentiment has softened temporarily, he noted options trading volume hit a record high, with the structural growth trend intact and "institutional demand never stronger." Cheng emphasized TradFi (Traditional Finance) and DeFi (Decentralized Finance) will merge, not compete, going forward. He noted traditional products mostly have T+1 or longer settlement cycles, while DeFi offers T+0 instant settlement—giving it a m

**February 15 Update** Two Democratic senators sent a letter to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on February 15 requesting the Treasury assess whether a $500 million investment in crypto firm World Liberty Financial by a UAE government-linked entity should undergo a national security review by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS). CFIUS, led by the Treasury Department, reviews foreign investment transactions involving sensitive U.S. technology or data. The Wall Street Journal reported that Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed, a member of Abu Dhabi’s royal family, backed G42—backed by Aryam Investment 1—in acquiring a 49% stake in World Liberty Financial. Reports have noted some of the funds flowed to the Trump family and its affiliates; the Trump side has denied any knowledge of the transaction. Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Andy Kim raised questions in their letter about whether the deal could grant a foreign government access to user data, citing G42’s past co

**February 15 Briefing** ARK Invest snapped up roughly $15 million in Coinbase (COIN) shares on Friday, reversing its selling earlier this month, per public filings. The purchases spanned three actively managed ETFs: - ARKK: 66,545 shares - ARKW: 16,832 shares - ARKF: 9,477 shares Based on Friday’s closing price of $164.32, the total value hit ~$15.2 million. Prior to this, ARK offloaded ~$39.4 million in COIN shares on Feb. 5–6—its first consecutive stake cuts since August 2025. The firm also boosted its position in crypto platform Bullish, signaling structural rebalancing across crypto-linked assets, not a full exit. **Coinbase Q4 2025 Fundamentals** - Net loss: $667 million (snapped 8 straight profitable quarters) - EPS: $0.66 (missed consensus estimates of $0.92) - Net revenue: $1.78 billion (-21.5% YoY) - Transaction revenue: -37% YoY - Subscription/services revenue: +13% YoY ($727 million) Despite the performance pressure, COIN shares surged 16.

This week (Feb 15–21) brings a flurry of market-moving global events, data releases, and developments. Here’s a breakdown of key highlights: ### Economic Data & Fed Focus - **Fed Minutes**: The U.S. Federal Reserve will publish its January monetary policy meeting minutes at 3:00 AM ET on Thursday. Investors will scour the document for fresh clues about the 2026 rate-cut path. - **U.S. GDP & PCE**: Friday at 9:30 PM ET delivers the Q4 advance GDP report and core PCE price index (the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge)—a top market focus. A hotter-than-expected PCE reading could shape the pace of policy easing this year. ### Central Bank Actions - Several Fed officials are scheduled to speak this week. - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will release its latest meeting minutes. - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will announce its rate decision: Markets widely expect the RBNZ to hold rates steady, while the RBA may flag upside inflation risks. ### Asset Performance

On February 15, CryptoQuant analyst @AxelAdlerJr posted a note noting that Bitcoin’s basis (7-day moving average) has fallen back into the neutral range as the premium between spot and futures contracts has narrowed significantly. The analyst pointed out this shift signals diminishing demand for building long positions via derivatives, and the market is no longer pricing in an aggressive “risk-on” scenario. Typically, this indicates a pullback in risk appetite, the start of a deleveraging process, and investors moving into a wait-and-see stance. Axel Adler Jr argues the derivatives market is currently unable to sustain further price gains. For bulls to regain momentum, he noted, they’ll need stronger support from spot buying activity.