The popular AI framework Virtuals Protocol will host an in-person meet-up in Hong Kong on Friday, January 17.

The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision will be released tonight, with multiple institutions sharing their forward-looking views. Most institutions expect the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged, and note that the policy statement and Chair Powell’s press conference will be key catalysts for market volatility. Among them: - MUFG and Saxo Bank believe that if the Fed delivers hawkish signals or unexpectedly raises interest rates, the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields are poised to strengthen. - TD Securities said that if there are no dissenting votes in the decision, it indicates Chair Powell has built internal consensus to some extent, and the U.S. dollar may face a sharp sell-off. - DBS Bank pointed out that even minor changes in the statement’s wording could significantly drive volatility in short-term interest rates. - Goldman Sachs and HSBC argue that even if the Fed holds rates steady throughout the year, the drag on the U.S. dollar will be limited. Unless the Fed unexpectedly raises rates, the dollar lacks new upside catalysts. For gold, ING Group and SIA Wealth Management hold that gold prices still have short-term support, but upside potential may be capped if a hawkish surprise emerges.

The U.S. Federal Reserve will release its July interest rate decision, with market consensus widely expecting the central bank to hold rates steady. However, potential surprise rate hikes, the policy statement’s wording, and voting splits will be the key highlights of the meeting. Markets will closely watch whether the statement includes more hawkish language, its assessment of inflation risks, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s latest views on inflation, the Middle East situation, and future policy paths during his press conference. Institutions widely expect Harker and Logan to cast dissenting votes against keeping rates unchanged, with two dissents already the market’s baseline expectation. If the number of dissenting votes exceeds two, it will be seen as a further sign of hawkish tilt within the Fed, lifting expectations for a September rate hike. Prediction market Kalshi shows Harker and Logan each have a 58% chance of casting a dissenting vote; Polymarket, meanwhile, puts the probability of two dissents at the highest 40%, followed by 21% for one dissent and 13% for three dissents. Market participants believe the meeting’s outcome and Powell’s remarks will drive repricing of the U.S. dollar, U.S. Treasury yields, and gold prices.

According to CME’s FedWatch tool, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged today is 70.6%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 29.4%. As for the Fed’s policy path by September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged stands at 17.8%, the chance of a cumulative 25 basis point hike is 60.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point hike is 22%.

Foreign media analysis indicates that U.S. President Donald Trump has been pressuring newly appointed Federal Reserve Chair Walsh to cut interest rates as soon as possible, but Wall Street investors are increasingly unanimously betting on the opposite outcome. The recent renewed escalation of tensions in Iran, the implementation of a new round of global tariffs, the ongoing data center investment boom, and sustained strong U.S. consumer spending have together heightened market and Federal Reserve concerns about inflationary pressures, reinforcing expectations that the central bank will maintain tight policy or even raise rates further. Markets widely expect the Fed to hold interest rates steady at its Wednesday meeting. However, whether Walsh, who took over as Fed chair at the end of May, can continue to suppress calls for rate hikes within the committee increasingly depends on whether inflation can improve sustainably. Current polls show U.S. citizens are dissatisfied with Trump’s economic performance, and higher interest rates will undoubtedly further undermine the economic outcomes the White House seeks. Trump has long advocated for interest rate cuts and reiterated this position again this week. Even if the Fed ultimately opts to raise rates, Trump may not initially target Walsh, and is more likely to direct criticism at other Fed officials. Trump has so far appointed three members of the Federal Reserve’s seven-member Board of Governors. He previously said: “Kevin is very capable, but he has a committee, and its members are all highly politicized. He wants to do the right thing, I know what he’s aiming for, but he needs the approval of some people who may have ulterior motives. Interest rates should be lowered.”

xAI announced the launch of Grok 4.5 and Grok Voice Think Fast 2.0. The latter is priced at $0.08 per minute of audio. On August 5, Grok-Voice-Latest will be upgraded from Grok-Voice-Think-Fast-1.0 to Grok-Voice-Think-Fast-2.0. (Source: Jinshi Data APP)

Bitfinex stated in a report that despite Bitcoin’s price falling from $82,000 to below $58,000, long-term holders have maintained net accumulation of BTC. However, alongside a concurrent weakening of selling pressure, their accumulation pace has slowed notably: net additions hit roughly 40,000 BTC in late May, dropping to around 14,000 BTC by late July. Bitfinex views the current market as being in a stabilization phase rather than having entered a substantive recovery.