The popular AI framework Virtuals Protocol will host an in-person meet-up in Hong Kong on Friday, January 17.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said Wednesday that the Federal Reserve may need to raise short-term interest rates further to curb elevated inflation, but she noted there is no need to take such action at the Fed’s Oct. 27-28 policy meeting. “We will very likely need to make further adjustments, but as for the timing of those adjustments, I think we are still weighing it,” Daly said. “I don’t think there’s a need to rush a decision when we have limited information. I believe we have enough time.”

Overnight during U.S. trading hours, U.S. Treasury prices rallied sharply, reversing the sell-off sparked by the latest higher inflation data, with yields on most Treasury maturities turning lower. This highlights the market’s conflicting bets on two scenarios: one is accelerating consumer price data, the other is Federal Reserve officials signaling no urgency to raise interest rates further. Official U.S. data showed that September’s year-over-year Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.7%, exceeding the market expectation of 3.6%. After the data release, the 2-year Treasury yield climbed to its highest level in over two weeks, before retreating from intraday highs alongside long-dated Treasury yields. Meanwhile, traders’ bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike in October rose to around 40% from 22% prior to the data; as of press time, that probability has fallen back to 33%. TD Securities U.S. rates strategist Brooks said the shifts in rate hike odds and Treasury yields are likely closely tied to recent dovish remarks from multiple Fed officials, including New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson. Brooks noted that for now, a 50/50 chance of an October rate hike seems reasonable, as the data may be sending one signal while the Fed is conveying another.

Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee said U.S. September inflation data coming in higher than expected is disappointing, particularly as services inflation remains above 5% and core goods prices failed to cool as anticipated, indicating inflationary pressures may be more persistent than previously assessed. He noted that if core inflation continues to hold at an annualized monthly rate of around 4%, that would be completely unacceptable and the Fed must take policy action. Goolsbee added that it remains unclear whether current interest rates are sufficient to bring inflation back to the 2% target, and he leans toward waiting for more data before deciding on further rate hikes. However, if inflation data stays at current levels in the coming months, the Fed cannot afford to stand idly by. He stressed that the latest data further confirms inflation is not a temporary phenomenon and is declining more slowly than previously expected. Goolsbee also pointed out that the U.S. labor market is very stable, economic growth is strong, consumer spending is robust, and AI investment could potentially drive the economy to overheat further. He said businesses in his district are barely signaling recession risks, instead generally focusing on rising costs and prices, so he is more concerned about demand overheating than supply shocks. Goolsbee emphasized that if the labor market remains stable and inflation stays above the target and moves in the wrong direction, the Fed must take action to prevent the economy from overheating further.

The Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book indicates that the U.S. economy overall remains in growth, though most sectors are seeing sluggish expansion. Among the 12 Federal Reserve districts, two reported moderate economic growth, three saw slight growth, four noted modest expansion, and three remained flat. Manufacturing performed relatively strongly, but consumer spending in most districts saw little change; more than half of the districts reported that consumption was primarily driven by high-income households. On the inflation front, three districts reported strong price increases, eight noted moderate rises, and four said price growth had accelerated from the prior period. All districts were impacted by rising oil prices; high diesel costs and fuel surcharges are pushing costs through the supply chain, while tariffs, insurance, and other commodity prices continue to exert pressure. Some businesses expect further price increases in the coming months as existing contracts expire and hedge and delivery agreements are renegotiated. On the employment front, most districts reported little change in employment levels, though shortages of professional, technical, and skilled workers persist. Five districts noted that some firms, after investing in artificial intelligence to boost productivity, have reduced headcount through attrition, delayed hiring, or plan to cut new positions. Meanwhile, rising inflation and benefit costs are driving workers to demand higher wages. The Beige Book notes that most businesses remain positive about the economic outlook for the coming months, but generally expect growth to be limited, with ongoing headwinds from energy prices, tariffs, and other uncertainties.

Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick said Wednesday he expects AI buildout will face periods of bottlenecks and overbuilding, though investment will continue at a massive scale in the coming years. Pick also stated that banks’ role lies in adjusting the pace of AI capital expenditure—slowing it appropriately when the market advances too quickly, and ramping up investment when needed. “These investments are extremely large; the growth of the U.S. economy, and even the global economy, is to some extent being driven by this AI capital expenditure cycle,” he said. Pick added that he projects annual spending in the AI sector will hold steady at around $1 trillion over the next five to 10 years. Separately, JPMorgan Chase CFO Jeremy Barnum said Tuesday that as capital expenditure demand from AI infrastructure construction keeps rising, JPMorgan is closely monitoring its risk exposure in the AI space.

BlockBeats News: Anthropic has told investors that its third-quarter revenue surged to $16.8 billion, and the company turned profitable in the quarter. Amid growing market skepticism over the AI industry boom, the AI firm is seeking to secure support for its highly anticipated initial public offering (IPO). Anthropic informed investors that it achieved profitability on an adjusted basis, with quarterly revenue rising nearly 50% from $11.5 billion in the second quarter. Chips and data centers, essential for AI labs to train and run models, are the company’s largest expenses. Anthropic also added that it posted positive cash flow in the quarter. The developer of the Claude model is widely expected to hold the highest-valued IPO in history. (Source: Financial Times UK)