Powell: External Institutions Have Raised the Likelihood of a Recession, Tariff Levels Higher Than Expected

On April 12th: Institutional analysts claimed that the recent outage of the U.S. Customs might be much more than a mere software failure. The so-called "failure" explanation might be a strategic smokescreen. The goal is not to fix a faulty system but to buy time during a period of high-risk global trade and capital flow adjustments. With the shockwave caused by Trump's tariff measures reverberating through the global supply chain, the sudden "failure" resulting in a pause in tariff data processing conveniently enables key stakeholders such as clearinghouses, freight forwarders, the U.S. Treasury, and Customs to pause and reset pricing and arrangements before any new rates can be enforced. This may also be a form of information disruption similar to a brief wartime fog of war strategy. By freezing tariff waiver tracking and reducing transparency on who is granted waivers and who isn't, this provides the U.S. executive branch and Treasury with some relatively quiet time (hours or days)

On April 12th, the White House declared that President Trump had explicitly demonstrated his eagerness to reach an accord with China.

On April 12th: The U.S. Customs announced that the system employed for exempting cargo tariffs has malfunctioned. The affected freight encompasses all traded goods of countries currently within the 90-day tariff suspension period implemented by the Trump administration. The U.S. Customs stated that they discovered that the entry codes utilized by U.S. consignors to apply for duty-free goods were not functioning and that "this issue is under review." At present, this indicates that the U.S. government is temporarily unable to collect tariffs. The U.S. Customs indicated that they will provide further updates once the issue is resolved. (FX168)

On April 12th, as per an official announcement, the live streaming feature on Pump.fun has been reopened for all users. Live streams that contain violations such as violence, harm to minors, copyright infringement, privacy violations, etc. may be immediately banned. Additionally, there is a possibility that future access to live streaming on Pump.fun or the Pump.fun trading platform itself may be suspended.

On April 12th, currently, the U.S. Treasury yield has surged to its highest level since February of this year. In the $29 trillion U.S. Treasury market, there has been a sharp sell-off, which has aggravated the deterioration of liquidity. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has jumped by 0.19% to 4.58%. The U.S. Treasury, which is traditionally regarded as the ultimate safe haven in the global financial system, is falling into a more serious distress. Earlier this week, the U.S. Treasury yield was below 3.9%. However, Trump's capricious tariff policy has shaken market confidence in U.S. policymaking and the economy, triggering a large-scale withdrawal of investors from U.S. assets. Peter Tchir, the head of macro strategy at Academy Securities, said, "If you are a foreign holder, there is indeed pressure to sell U.S. Treasuries and corporate bonds globally. What the world is truly worried about is that they don't know what Trump is going to do." According to the Bloomberg U.S. Treasury In

On April 12th, according to market data, the U.S. stock market witnessed an extension of its gains during intraday trading. The Nasdaq increased by 1.49%, the S&P 500 rose by 1.25%, and the Dow went up by 0.8%. Cryptocurrency stocks generally showed an upward trend, including: MicroStrategy (MSTR) which rose by 8.27%; MARA Holdings (MARA) that went up by 3.8%. Most U.S. tech stocks also rose: Microsoft (MSFT) increased by 1.55%; Apple (AAPL) rose by 3.67%; Google (GOOG) went up by 2.9%; Nvidia (NVDA) rose by 2.58%; Meta Platforms (META) decreased by 0.9%; Amazon (AMZN) rose by 0.7%; Tesla (TSLA) dropped by 2.4%.