Analyst: Long-Term Holders Key to Suppressing BTC Reversal

On April 4th, on-chain data analyst Murphy posted on social media, stating that typically in a bull market pullback, the price of BTC would repeatedly test the Short-Term Holder Realized Price Cost (STH-RPC), which currently stands at $93,000. However, since February of this year, BTC has not seen a decent rebound. Between November 2024 and January 2025, among the total realized value in the market, STH profit realization accounted for 56%, while LTH accounted for 42%. This indicated that everyone had a sufficient profit margin at that time and dominated the cash-out behavior. During the rebound from March 13th to March 25th, LTH profit realization reached 70%, while STH was only at 10%. This suggests that at this time, the cash-out behavior was mainly by long-term holders because short-term holders had little profit margin left. From a data perspective, historically, whether in a deep bear market or a bull market pullback, a phase-wise bottom would be formed after LTH gradually turned into a loss-making state, even marking the bottom of a long cycle. This is because when there is nothing left to sell (surrender), it forms a bottom. The nearest long-term holder's cost base to the current price is around $81,000, and this group holds approximately over 300,000 BTC. This means that when the BTC price falls below $80,000, the BTC held by these LTHs will be in a loss-making state (thus, this price level also has strong support). In addition, over time, as more high-level trapped short-term chips passively become long-term chips, the same effect will be generated; that is, overall raising the LTH cost basis. Either way, until this "issue" is effectively resolved, we will always be in the framework of "looking for rebounds and not for reversals."