Shitcoin Season Index Drops to 14, Near All-Time Low

On April 4th, Bruce Kasman, the Chief Economist of JPMorgan Chase, stated that if the Trump administration continues to impose tariffs on U.S. trading partners, it has the potential to push the U.S. and potentially the global economy into a recession by 2025. Kasman said in a note on Thursday, "The risk of a global economic recession this year has risen from 40% to 60%." He characterized the tariffs as the largest tax increase on American households and businesses since 1968. He also pointed out that the impact of this tax increase is likely to be intensified through retaliation, declining business sentiment, and supply chain disruptions. (FXStreet)

April 4th. According to Financefeeds, Kim Sung-jin, who is in charge of the Virtual Asset Department of the Financial Services Commission (FSC) in South Korea, expressed that he is in favor of enabling foreign investors to enter the South Korean cryptocurrency market. Nevertheless, the prerequisite is that local exchanges must show strong compliance capabilities in anti-money laundering. Currently, due to capital controls and the requirement for real-name accounts, non-residents are almost unable to trade cryptocurrencies in Korea. However, as the United States indicates a more crypto-friendly policy under the Trump administration, South Korean regulators are starting to reevaluate the existing restrictions. The FSC is still cautious at present and believes that Korean exchanges still lack international compliance, especially in terms of the implementation of the Travel Rule. This rule, which began in 2022, requires exchanges to collect and store information of both parties in transact

On April 4th. The three major U.S. stock indexes opened at a lower level and closed lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average initially declined by approximately 1700 points. The S&P 500 Index dropped by 4.8%, and the Nasdaq fell by nearly 6%. Technology stocks experienced a sharp decline. Apple (AAPL.O) fell by 9%, losing about $300 billion in market value. Meanwhile, Amazon (AMZN.O) and Nvidia (NVDA.O) fell by 8.9% and 7.8% respectively. In contrast, Intel (INTC.O) went against the trend and rose by 2%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index decreased by 1.9%.

On April 4th, based on official website data, the likelihood of "the U.S. economy entering a recession by 2025" on Polymarket has increased to 47%.

On April 4th, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Jefferson stated that given the solid economic conditions in the United States, tariffs have already led to an increase in commodity inflation, and the outlook has become more uncertain than before. He is inclined to maintain the current moderately restrictive policy rate at its current level and closely monitor the next steps in employment and prices. "In my opinion, there is no need to rush to make further adjustments to the policy rate," Jefferson said. During a time when the Trump administration is rapidly promoting trade and other policy changes, he reiterated a mantra that Federal Reserve officials have frequently emphasized, that "the current policy stance effectively addresses the risks and uncertainties we face in fulfilling our dual mandate." (IG)

On April 4th, President Trump extended an invitation to Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele to pay a visit to the White House on April 14th.