QCP: Short-term Outlook Expects Continued Pressure on All Risk Assets, Market Sentiment Remains Gloomy
On April 2nd, QCP released its daily market observation, stating that "Trump is about to announce a series of tariff measures in the Rose Garden. In the short term, we anticipate that all risk assets will continue to be under pressure. Nevertheless, as the new situation gradually stabilizes, we might witness some 'non-US exceptionalism.' Even if the United States may become marginalized due to policy choices, global stock indices may still continue to reach new highs."
The market anticipates that the Fed will cut interest rates by 2.5 times by 2025. The Fed is facing challenges. Weak consumer confidence and soft data suggest the possibility of a slowdown in US GDP growth in the second quarter. Meanwhile, inflation pressures triggered by tariffs may gradually intensify starting from April 2nd. In a classic stagflation environment, the Fed is more inclined to raise rates rather than cut them. In the current situation, the Fed appears to adopt a wait-and-see attitude.
Regarding cryptocu
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Bitget Research Institute: Trump's Tariff Remarks Trigger Safe-haven Sentiment, Bitcoin May Benefit from a New Round of Global Safe-haven Trend
On April 2nd, Ryan Lee, the chief analyst of the Bitget Research Institute, pointed out that with the new tariff plan proposed by US President Trump, Bitcoin's safe-haven property is receiving more attention. His proposal of "uniformly imposing a 20% tariff" has triggered market concerns about fiat currency, especially the confidence in the US dollar, especially against the backdrop of rising inflation expectations. Jim Reid from Deutsche Bank and Chris Weston from Pepperstone have both warned that if this policy is implemented, the global economy may face the risk of "stagflation", where costs rise while economic growth is limited.
From an economic fundamentals perspective, if this round of tariffs is implemented, it may increase manufacturing costs and exacerbate inflation. This event may lead to continued market uncertainty. In this environment, the demand for Bitcoin as an inflation hedge and safe-haven asset is expected to increase significantly.
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Circle paid Binance $60.25 million to establish a two-year USDC promotion and holding partnership
On April 2nd, as per the IPO S-1 filing submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) by the stablecoin issuer Circle, in November 2024, Binance emerged as the first approved participant within the stablecoin ecosystem protocol. Under the partnership agreement, Binance is mandated to promote USDC on its platform and maintain a certain quantity of USDC within its treasury reserve.
Circle made a one-time prepayment fee of $60.25 million to Binance and agreed to pay monthly incentive fees based on Binance's USDC balance. The incentive fee will only be paid when Binance holds at least 1.5 billion USDC, while Binance commits to holding 3 billion USDC (with certain exceptions in specific circumstances).
The partnership is divided into two segments: market promotion and treasury reserve, both spanning a period of two years. If Binance terminates the market promotion agreement prematurely, it is still obligated to make reduced-rate payments and fulfill promotional obligation
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Bitcoin Short-Term Recovery Surges Beyond $85,000
On April 2nd, based on HTX market data, Bitcoin witnessed a short-term rebound that exceeded $85,000. It is currently trading at $84,943, with a 24-hour increase of 0.89%.
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