Analysis: Bitcoin's Rebound Could Fall into a "Bull Trap," "Breakout Day" May Be the Key Catalyst

On March 26th, Kirill Kretov, a cryptocurrency trading expert at the automated trading platform CoinPanel, issued a warning: "Investors need to be extremely cautious in the current environment. The market remains fragile and is susceptible to manipulation. Retail participation is low, trading volume is thin, and even the so-called 'smart money' is on the sidelines. The forces with the true ability to drive the market are choosing to remain neutral - and this is no mere coincidence." According to CryptoQuant data, although Bitcoin's price rose to $88,786 earlier this week, its funding rate has turned negative. This indicates that traders are reluctant to pay a premium for opening new long positions in the perpetual contract market, showing signs of a cooling in leverage demand. Augustine Fan, a partner at the cryptocurrency derivatives software provider SignalPlus, stated that clarity regarding the market direction awaits a key policy event on April 2nd: "We anticipate that the market's soft rebound will continue until the end of the month. The next significant catalyst will be the announcements of 'Tariff Liberation Day.' With the Trump administration scheduled to announce a new round of tariff plans on that day, macro policy uncertainty may once again become the spark that disrupts the balance of the cryptocurrency market (Jinshi)."