Intensifying Long-Short Game, Options Market Still Betting on $100K End-of-June Target

March 21st. According to CoinDesk, the cryptocurrency market initially witnessed a short-lived euphoria and then underwent profit-taking following the FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve. Bitcoin dropped from a peak of $86,000 to below $84,000, experiencing a more than 3% decrease within 24 hours. Ethereum also fell below the $2,000 psychological level. Despite the overall market pressure, options traders remain optimistic about the mid-term outlook. The probability of Bitcoin surpassing $100,000 by the end of June increased from 20% to nearly 30% within 24 hours. The Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate unchanged and announced the tapering of quantitative tightening (QT) in April, which was interpreted as an implicit signal of easing, driving Bitcoin briefly above $85,000. BNB demonstrated resilience with an 8% weekly increase, while the weekly gain of XRP narrowed to 4.8%. The options market showed a divergence. Ethereum call options accounted for 60%, indicating a rise in the sentiment of bargain hunting. 34% of Bitcoin options trading volume was used for downside protection, intensifying the long-short game. After the brief euphoria, the market returned to rationality. $80,000 became a key short-term support level for Bitcoin and became the focus of a new round of long-short game. The optimistic expectations in the options market and the cautious sentiment in the spot market formed a delicate balance. Breaking through the moving average resistance may potentially become the key to trend reversal.