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Data Scientist: Crypto Prediction Market Polymarket Predicts World Events with Up to 90% Accuracy

7 days ago

On March 21st, as per the report by CoinDesk, the research conducted by data scientist Alex McCullough indicates that the prediction market Polymarket has attained an accuracy rate of 90% when forecasting events one month in advance and a high accuracy rate of 94% within the four hours prior to the event. McCullough analyzed the historical data of Polymarket and, after excluding extreme probability values, discovered that the platform slightly but consistently overestimates the probability of event occurrence within most probability ranges. This behavior may be affected by factors such as herd mentality, low liquidity, and participants' preference for high-risk bets.
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