Viewpoint: BTC Seller Exhaustion Index enters the 'extreme zone' for the first time in this bear market

Citigroup strategists noted that positioning in European and U.S. markets has stabilized over the past week, putting pressure on short sellers, with short positions in the S&P 500 being particularly prominent. The team added that investors in both regions injected new capital last week, rather than merely closing out bearish positions. In the U.S. market, the current rally has led to mounting losses for short sellers; the S&P 500’s massive short positions could face forced covering if the market continues its gradual upward trend.

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted in a recent post that the holding status of new BTC buyers is improving. Investors holding BTC for 0 to 3 months are nearly at break-even, while those holding BTC for 3 to 6 months still face deep unrealized losses, with current market pressure concentrated on the latter group. The NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) indicator for the 0-3 month BTC holding cohort has rebounded to -0.02, close to the break-even level, and has improved significantly from -0.13 since June. In contrast, the NUPL for the 3-6 month holding cohort remains at -0.14, indicating their average cost basis is still notably higher than the current BTC price. The Realized Cap Drawdown for the 3-6 month holding cohort has also continued to deteriorate, hitting -69.6%—the lowest level in the past 90 days—while the figure for the 0-3 month group is around -64%. This means that although pressure on the most recent buyers is easing, investors who entered earlier still face large unrealized losses. Adler added that the near break-even of the 0-3 month holding group is a positive signal for market improvement, but broader recovery will require the NUPL of the 3-6 month cohort to return above zero, along with a halt in the expansion of their Realized Cap Drawdown and the start of sustained recovery. Currently, the main pressure among "young coins" has shifted from the latest buyers to the 3-6 month holding group.

Per official announcement, Binance will conduct wallet maintenance on the Tron (TRX) network at 14:00 (GMT+8) on August 13, 2026. To facilitate this maintenance, the exchange will suspend Tron (TRX) deposits and withdrawals starting at 13:55 (GMT+8) on the same day. The maintenance is expected to last 1 hour, and deposits and withdrawals will automatically resume once the work is completed.

Intel (INTC.O) announced the upsizing and pricing of its $20 billion common stock offering, stating it will issue 210,526,315 shares at $95 per share. (Jinshi)

CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju has acknowledged errors in his earlier analysis of CME Bitcoin (BTC) futures data, correcting that he had mislabeled "Total Reportables" as "Leveraged Funds". Per Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) futures data as of August 4, Total Reportables on CME—all large reportable traders, primarily institutional investors—are currently in a slight net long position. This means his prior assessment that institutions are leaning bullish remains valid, though their long position advantage is limited. The Total Reportables group encompasses not only hedge funds but also asset management firms, dealers, and other traders required to file reports. Ju added that Leveraged Funds still maintain a net short position in standard BTC futures, but their net short position has shrunk by approximately 50% in BTC terms over the past year. As the profitability of basis trading weakens, basis yields have fallen below U.S. Treasury yields, prompting some structural short positions to reduce. Separately, Leveraged Funds hold a small net long position in Micro BTC futures, totaling around 394 BTC—roughly 1% of their net short position in standard BTC futures. Ju noted that Leveraged Funds as a whole have not yet turned net long, but their long-standing structural short positions are clearly easing, a shift that may reflect both basis trading liquidations and adjustments to directional positions.

According to Bitget's market data, WTI crude oil rose 1% intraday, currently trading at $82.29 per barrel.