July’s CPI is expected to edge slightly lower, with Citigroup and Bank of America holding differing views on the outlook for a September interest rate hike.
1 hours ago
Economists surveyed by Reuters expect the U.S. headline CPI annual rate to fall to 3.4% in July from 3.5% in June, while the core CPI annual rate will drop to 2.5% from 2.6% last month. Citigroup economists argue that, as anticipated, if inflation readings soften for the second consecutive month, it will signal more than one month of cooling inflationary pressures, effectively ruling out the possibility of a September interest rate hike. However, economists also forecast that core services inflation in July will rise slightly, with prices increasing 0.3% month-on-month, after being flat from May to June. Bank of America analysts note that the rebound in the core services metric could keep a September rate hike on the table. Analyst Kate Duguid said that if the latter view prevails and inflation data comes in below expectations, the Federal Reserve may delay a rate hike until December or later. (Jin10)
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