Fed Mouthpiece: July Non-Farm Payrolls Signals Hard to Decipher, Inflation Becomes Key Variable for Interest Rate Hikes

According to Reuters, the pro-AI super PAC Leading the Future has raised $140 million for the 2026 U.S. election, with major funding coming from executives at OpenAI and Palantir, as well as venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz. Its fundraising haul is nearly on par with the $200 million in campaign funds the crypto industry contributed during the last election cycle. Unlike the crypto camp, which faced almost no substantive opposition at that time, the AI lobbying effort is encountering fierce pushback from a coalition led by Anthropic. Anthropic has donated $20 million each to the lobbying group Public First Action on two separate occasions, and the group, alongside its affiliated entities, has invested a total of roughly $80 million toward "mitigating major artificial intelligence risks".

Tom Lee weighed in on tonight’s unexpectedly weak non-farm payroll data, noting the market is suffering from "inflation disorder". Even as inflation is on a downward trajectory, the market remains impatient and hawkish. "After the jobs report, the probability of a September interest rate hike plunged from 75% two weeks ago to below 40%. Many economists had previously advocated an early rate hike, and this reaction underscores the market’s excessive concern over inflation." Lee advised investors to avoid misjudging the current situation by clinging to memories of 2022’s high inflation period.

Galaxy Research has highly confirmed that the Coldcard security breach led to the theft of 1,719 BTC, worth around $111 million, and projects the actual total loss may surpass $130 million. The research team has traced over 25 attack patterns and suspects multiple threat actors are exploiting the vulnerability concurrently. To date, more than 250 victim reports have been submitted; if all pending verification cases are validated, the stolen BTC count could exceed 2,300. Galaxy Research added there is no evidence so far that the vulnerability impacts any signing devices or wallets other than Coldcard Mk3, Mk4, Mk5, and Q. The team has received over 250 victim reports; if all currently unconfirmed cases are ultimately verified, the stolen amount could top 2,300 BTC, though this figure remains unconfirmed at present.

The latest survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York shows that Americans’ overall expectations for the U.S. job market improved in July, while their inflation outlook also shifted. Consumers’ one-year ahead inflation expectation edged down slightly to 3.6% from 3.7%. Their three-year and five-year inflation expectations remained unchanged at 3.3% and 3% respectively. The perceived probability that unemployed workers will find a new job rose to 46.2%, the highest level so far this year. This increase was most notable among individuals with a high school diploma or less and households earning less than $50,000 annually. Consumers grew more optimistic about the stock market, with the probability they assign to stock prices rising a year from now hitting its highest level since April 2021 in this survey series.

China’s State Taxation Administration (STA) responded to recent discussions on taxing Hong Kong insurance gains, stating that Chinese tax residents must fulfill their tax obligations on global income in accordance with the law. Overseas insurance gains fall within the scope of taxable income; this is not a new policy nor is it specifically targeting the Hong Kong insurance market. The STA noted that individual residents’ overseas insurance gains and other investment income should be declared and taxed in accordance with the law, and relevant rules treat overseas income from different countries and regions equally. Caixin reported yesterday that, with the normalization of Common Reporting Standard (CRS) information exchange, Chinese tax authorities can now fully access dividend and cash value data of overseas insurance policies, gradually filling gaps in tax collection and management. Currently, the collection of taxes on insurance gains from overseas income has been initiated.

According to a Financial Times report, Jane Street is in talks with investors including Pimco to shift roughly $11 billion in debt from public markets to private instruments via a private credit deal. Analysts note that the debt move is aimed at reducing quarterly financial disclosure requirements to numerous creditors, while giving the company greater flexibility to further invest in AI infrastructure such as data centers and related technologies.