This week's earnings season saw the combined market capitalization of the six major tech giants swing nearly $2 trillion, with AI investment returns emerging as the key factor driving market divergence.

This week, the combined market capitalization of six U.S. tech giants that have released earnings reports has shifted nearly $2 trillion, as investors pick winners based on cloud business growth and returns on AI capital expenditures. Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft together added nearly $1.5 trillion in market value, with Microsoft rising by over $600 billion, and both Amazon and Alphabet gaining more than $400 billion each. Meanwhile, Apple’s market cap shed over $350 billion, Meta fell by around $85 billion, and Tesla dropped roughly $7 billion. Although Apple exceeded expectations for revenue, earnings, and iPhone sales, it projected this quarter’s revenue growth at 9% to 11% — below analysts’ forecast of 12% — and noted that storage chip shortages and competition for wafer manufacturing capacity will continue to limit supply. Its stock closed down more than 7% on Friday. Amazon’s second-quarter AWS revenue rose 37% year-over-year, marking its fastest growth rate since 2021, driving its stock up over 15% on Friday. The company also raised its 2026 capital expenditure forecast from $200 billion to $220 billion. Microsoft rose 15% on Thursday, while Meta fell 8%, reflecting a clear divergence in the market’s assessment of the two firms’ AI investment returns. Jefferies stated that U.S. tech giants’ AI spending over the next 12 months is approaching $800 billion. The current market debate is no longer over whether real demand for AI exists, but whether long-term profits can support such large-scale investments.