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Ahead of the FOMC statement, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates this meeting stands at 29.4%.

1 hours ago

According to CME’s FedWatch tool, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged today is 70.6%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 29.4%. As for the Fed’s policy path by September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged stands at 17.8%, the chance of a cumulative 25 basis point hike is 60.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point hike is 22%.

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US storage concept stocks rebound, Seagate Technology rises over 8%, SK Hynix gains 3.01%

According to market data from BIT (bit.com), US-listed storage concept stocks have rebounded. Specific performances include: SanDisk (SNDK) rose 0.89%, Western Digital (WDC) gained 6.29%, Seagate Technology (STX) increased 8.18%, and SK Hynix (SKHY) climbed 3.01%.

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Walsh: Today’s resolution is not a “suspension” but merely the start of policy adjustment.

Fed Chair Waller said at a press conference that the latest interest rate decision will not be framed as a "pause", and if markets interpret it as such, that is their own judgment. “Today’s decision is just the beginning of the story, not the end,” Waller stated. The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring the impact of various shocks on underlying inflation and assessing whether their scope is expanding, adding that it is currently conducting a rigorous review of economic conditions. He emphasized that the U.S. labor market is performing well, and the Fed is “doing quite well” in achieving full employment, noting that its dual mandate has no conflicts and neither mandate is being overlooked. Regarding the upcoming Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, Waller said he has not yet started preparing his speech, adding that he hopes to discuss major policy topics at the event and will further study relevant issues with his working group ahead of the meeting.

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Walsh: June core CPI data has little impact on policy decisions.

Fed Chair Waller stated at a press conference: "Today's three dissenting votes do not fully reflect the substance of the discussions; the decision we reached was backed by the vast majority. The June core CPI data had little impact on the policy decision. We will communicate with the inflation working group in the coming weeks. We have obtained some encouraging inflation data, which we will closely monitor moving forward. What matters is the inflation trend. We will face important decisions in the period ahead." (Jinshi)

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Spot gold crosses the $4,100 mark.

According to Bitget's market data, spot gold has risen above $4,100 per ounce, adding nearly $60 in gains since the interest rate decision was announced.

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Wash: The economy is showing impressive resilience, with the sole target of achieving a 2% inflation rate.

Federal Reserve Chair Waller stated that discussions at the interest rate-setting meeting were harmonious. The economy has demonstrated impressive resilience. The committee refrained from issuing forecasts, is firmly committed to achieving price stability, has no flexible inflation target, and its sole goal is a 2% inflation rate. (Jinshi)

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Walsh: Five years of high inflation has eroded the credibility of the 2% inflation target, and inflation cannot be tamed within nine weeks.

Fed Chair Waller stated at a press conference that the high inflation of the past five years has left the market with a persistent impression that the Federal Reserve’s implicit inflation target is higher than 2%. Waller noted that the inflation issue "cannot be resolved within 9 weeks," and pointed out that both nominal and real yields on the current U.S. Treasury yield curve have risen significantly.

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