Castle Securities: Walsh may deliver a surprise interest rate hike this week.
2 hours ago
Citadel Securities’ Head of Macro Strategy Frank Fliat expects the U.S. Federal Reserve to unexpectedly raise interest rates by 25 basis points this Wednesday. He notes this move would reinforce Fed Chair Christopher Waller’s commitment to price stability and underscore the central bank’s independence in monetary policy decisions. Fliat added that markets may be underestimating the Fed’s hawkish pivot once again, with a rate hike this week effectively marking the end of the “forward guidance era” — meaning the Fed will no longer pre-announce policy decisions in advance. Currently, interest rate swap markets price in roughly a 40% chance of a 25 bps hike at this meeting, but have almost fully factored in one rate increase before September. Citadel Securities argues an early rate hike this week would impact markets more than waiting until September. Earlier policy tightening could shift market expectations of how the Fed will address inflation, influence corporate pricing and employee wage demands, thereby reducing the amount of additional tightening ultimately required. Despite recent softening in employment and inflation data, Fliat still views inflation risks as elevated and the labor market as stable. Middle East tensions pushing energy prices higher have also boosted the likelihood of a rate hike; while oil prices fell after the U.S. suspended daily airstrikes on Iran, crude oil has still climbed around 20% cumulatively this month.
Abnormally low single-share trades in South Korean pre-market trading for SK Hynix sparked a chain of volatility, leading to a 17.9% flash drop in SKHX on Hyperliquid.
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The largest SKHX short position on Hyperliquid has expanded its unrealized profit to $6.1 million.
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SKHX flash crash breaches Hyperliquid's backup liquidator, triggering forced liquidations of over $26 million.
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