Mizuho downgrades Circle to Underperform, cuts its target price to $50

China's leading domestic memory chip giant Changxin Technology today announced approximately 7.702 million subscription winning numbers. According to Hyperinsight's monitoring, the price of CXMT (Changxin Memory Technologies, Changxin Technology's listed entity) Pre-IPO contracts on Hyperliquid has dropped below $7, currently trading at $6.81, with a more than 5% decline in 24 hours. Its corresponding RMB share price stands at 46.15 yuan. Calculated based on the post-issue total share count of 66.881 billion shares, the on-chain implied market capitalization is roughly $455.4 billion, equivalent to around 3.08 trillion yuan. Based on this valuation, the subscription cost per 500-share lot for retail investors who won the online application is 4,330 yuan, with the estimated market value of 500 shares on the first day of listing at 23,075 yuan, translating to a per-lot profit of approximately 18,700 yuan.

South Korea's Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) has issued an inspection notice to Upbit parent company Dunamu over last November's Upbit hack, officially launching sanctions proceedings. Dunamu only disclosed the breach after completing its merger with Naver Financial that day, sparking a controversy over delayed reporting. The firm subsequently froze and recovered roughly 2.6 billion won in assets, while Upbit’s own funds fully covered the remaining 38.6 billion won in user losses. South Korea’s current Virtual Asset User Protection Act focuses on user protection and curbing unfair trading, but lacks direct penalty clauses for hacks and system incidents, leaving it uncertain whether the sanctions will escalate to heavy penalties. The FSS chief previously stated, “Our penalty authority is relatively limited, but this is not an incident that can be easily dismissed.” South Korean financial authorities plan to add sanctions and compensation provisions for hacks and system failures in the second phase of the Digital Asset Basic Act legislation. The FSS will finalize the sanction level after Dunamu finishes its explanation process, via votes from the Sanctions Review Committee, Securities and Futures Commission, and Financial Commission.

Michael Saylor, founder of Strategy, has once again released updates related to Bitcoin Tracker. He stated, "What’s next?" According to historical patterns, Strategy always discloses details of its Bitcoin holdings increase the day after such related announcements are made.

Bubblemaps has released statistics showing that among the 164,538 traders active in the top 50 meme tokens on Robinhood Chain, 63% are in a losing position while 37% are profitable. On the profit side, there are 46 traders with profits exceeding $1 million, 312 with profits over $100,000, 2,458 with profits above $10,000, and 9,774 with profits over $1,000. For losses, 5 traders have incurred losses of more than $10 million, 7 have lost over $1 million, 86 have losses exceeding $100,000, 822 have losses above $10,000, and 6,725 have losses of more than $1,000.

Bank of America chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett has issued a fresh warning, noting the bank’s proprietary Bull & Bear Indicator has surged to an extreme historical level of 9.6. The latest fund manager survey shows current investor optimism rests on four core assumptions: no hard economic landing, no Federal Reserve rate hikes, no cuts to AI capital expenditure, and no Democratic sweep in the congressional midterm elections. Hartnett dubs this combination “no landing, no hike, no cut, no sweep” — the root cause of the market’s near-total lack of short positions. The latest fund flow data confirms the market’s extreme exuberance: U.S. equities saw a net inflow of $55.8 billion, while money market funds recorded a massive net outflow of $119.6 billion, marking the largest weekly cash withdrawal since April 2026; tech sector inflows totaled $48.8 billion over three weeks, a historical record. Hartnett describes this as institutional-driven, reckless momentum chasing. Hartnett advises decisively exiting risk assets this summer and shifting to long-dated Treasuries, defensive sectors, high-dividend stocks, and the U.S. dollar. He names U.S. mega-cap ETF MAGS as a key watch indicator: a break below $65 will drag down the entire cyclical sector, while a breakout above $70 will signal a re-entry point. The biggest tail risk lies in a scenario where mega-cap tech firms announce cuts to AI capital expenditure yet fail to push the Magnificent 7 to new highs — the resulting sharp negative shocks to growth and asset prices would trigger massive short selling in banks, brokers, and industrial stocks.

Circle CEO Heath Tarbert recently admitted in an interview with Fox Business that the company’s stock price has plunged roughly 76% from around $260 in June last year to approximately $62. He responded that if the company executes its long-term plans well—including the Arc blockchain infrastructure project—"the stock price will take care of itself," and stressed that "Circle is in it for the long haul." However, analysts have grown cautious about Circle’s outlook. Mizuho cut its rating on CRCL from "Neutral" to "Underperform," slashing the target price from $85 to $50, implying roughly 21% downside potential. Mizuho noted that even if interest rates stay high through 2027, this will not offset pricing pressure and profit erosion from intensifying competition. Retail investor sentiment on Stocktwits remains in "bullish" territory, while discussion volume stays elevated. Regarding the emerging stablecoin Open USD—backed by around 140 companies and planned to return reserve profits to partners and waive minting fees—Tarbert said Circle welcomes competition, adding that rival consortium models are extremely hard to sustain long-term. He emphasized USDC remains the world’s leading stablecoin, with its core moat built on scale advantages: roughly $73 billion in current circulating supply and native support for 34 blockchains. Meanwhile, Circle is actively expanding its global payment footprint, having signed a memorandum of understanding with Japan’s JCB to explore USDC use cases in merchant payments and cross-border treasury management, including enabling overseas tourists to use stablecoins for in-person payments in Japan.